Limits of “Extend and Pretend” Tested
The extend and pretend charade in Europe is out of magic dust to sprinkle around. It is becoming increasingly apparent that there is no way…
Rosenberg
Rosy Not Impressed With Labor Data
David Rosenberg’s take on the employment data is not nearly as optimistic as Tout TV and the rest of the sell-side analysts. Remember, just to…
Today’s Wisdom
Quote of the Day from The Big Picture website: “The economy remains on government-assisted life support, and the government has been very successful in creating…
Housing Disaster in Perspective
Here is an interesting piece of information about the US housing market: The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is…
Market Caution from David Rosenberg
The obvious question is: how can the bull market possibly be over considering that we enjoyed that amazing 405-point rally on the Dow just three…
Investors Beware
This post from Tyler Durden relies heavily on David Rosenberg, probably the most astute financial/economic analysis around. Both are very dubious regarding a recovery and the levitating stock market.
It is highly unlikely that we are in a real recovery. Reported GDP numbers were positive for the past two quarters, but subsidiary components are not behaving well.
Investors beware.
Today will be day 12 of 13 (or something just as silly) that the market has been melting up on no volume: yet another truly ridiculous statistic in the anals of momoism. As David Rosenberg points out: “the market has been able to digest California, Dubai, and Greece” – and this has all been offset by what? Merely promises of ever increasing liquidity and bailouts by the Fed, first domestically, and soon internationally. Have people really forgotten yet again that this is precisely what got ua on the verge of a historic collapse in the first place? Yes, the Fed bailed capitalism out last time around (with about 3 hours to spare), but this time it has gone dodecatuple all in, and unless intelligent, and very rich life, on Mars is discovered pretty quickly, this will all end in ruins (certainly those of the Marriner Eccles building).
Speaking of momentum, as everyone rushes to find ever greater fools (no scarcity these days), the economic condition is forgotten. But the market is a leading indicator skeptics will say… Perhaps, in every other Keynesian situation that did not have global sovereign default on the other side of the crossing. We are now truly in a unique situation where the market is a leading indicator of nothing but greed and stupidity (in retrospect, that’s not all that unique). Here is a good recap of where we have been, and where we are, courtesy of Rosie (who we hope is sufficiently inebriated at this point to note the humor in the current situation). [David Rosenberg’s comments italicized]
The equity market at any given moment of time is one part reality and three parts perception. Our friend, Brian Belski at Oppenheimer was on CNBC the other day and claimed that this was turning into a normal economic recovery. And that is what many market participants seem to believe until they don’t believe it any more. Their resolve has been impressive. But if this were a normal cycle, then: