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More on Obama’s Re-election Prospects

There are many ways to look at Obama’s re-election probabilities. This particular one relates the betting odds on InTrade to the stock market. There is a correlation as seen below. This relationship, if believed by the White House, provides just another reason to expect more QE from the Federal Reserve.

Here’s The Real Reason Obama’s Re-Election Odds Are Plunging

Obama’s re-election odds have wavered after a string of poor jobs reports, with many polls putting the president within the margin of error for a win this November.

But for Obama and Romney supporters, the best insight may be how the markets are performing come fall.

We present a chart we’ve seen many times before (updated through Friday’s close): Obama’s re-election odds (as calculated by InTrade) against the S&P 500.

The two are somewhat correlated — showing an R-squared of 0.62 — and stock market historian Sam Stovall says that equities predict the winner of the presidential ballot with 88 percent accuracy.

3 thoughts on “More on Obama’s Re-election Prospects”

  1. I suspect that the world economy is spinning out of control and I’m not sure that more FED juicing will halt the slide. Good riddance, Obama, may your name go down in infamy.

  2. Pingback: More on Obama’s Re-election Prospects [economicnoise] « Mktgeist blog

  3. Pingback: More on Obama’s Re-election Prospects « Silver For The People – The Blog

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