David Stockman wrote an intriguing article which appeared in the NY Times. That it appeared in the Times is noteworthy itself, for it contradicts so many liberal shibboleths the paper has supported (promoted) for many years. Its appearance is less likely to reflect the first steps to Damascus and may be a sign of financial […]
“Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana Ideology is powerful, capable of masking unpleasant facts. Whether we recognize it or not, we are all slaves to ideology. Economists are no different in that regard than other people. They hold preconceived ideas which affect the interpretation of data and facts. […]
The condition of the US (and world) economy is precarious. Alasdair Sinclair says that money printing is the only thing holding the economy up: We are in the eye of a financial storm, for which the only solution – other than mass default – is an accelerating supply of money. Deteriorating financial conditions ineither government, banks, private sector or securities markets are almost certain to trigger a run on the others. And that is why a far larger figure than QE3’s $85bn permonth may be required to keep the system afloat. Mr. Sinclair is correct. I recommend you read his piece in full. […]
For those who think bonds are a safe place to be, you might want to reconsider. In addition to rising sovereign risk (yes, for the US as well as other countries), there is interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is what you assume when you buy a bond and do not intend to hold it […]
How this economic disaster ends is something about which many of us speculate. Two extreme endings are likely — a sudden deflationary collapse or a period of very high inflation/hyperinflation which ultimately cripples commerce and resolves itself in a deflationary collapse. In either case, the deflationary collapse is another Great Depression. It is important to know […]
Even if the economy improves (it won’t in any real sense), the changes coming to this country border on the unimaginable for both the enlightened and unenlightened. Economic events similar to what occurred during the Great Depression are not far from happening. Some outcomes will be worse than what occurred 80 years ago. No bell […]
On the roller coaster that we call the stock market, it is easy to miss the forest for the trees. Volatile short-term moves are especially pronounced in today’s economic environment. But do they have any meaning in the larger scheme of things? The following chart provides a big picture of the stock market. More important, […]
Richard Russell, respected investment adviser for over half a century, has been operating at half-speed for him which is full speed for most of us. In this short note he explains why. More importantly, he comments on what he believes is coming. This is from a man who lived through the Great Depression. Please read […]
There is no way to reasonably estimate how long the depression will last. Michael Panzner discusses one way to estimate timeframes. Are We There Yet? by Michael Panzner (Image: source.) Like children sitting anxiously in the back of the car on a long journey, many people — especially those “experts” who failed to see financial Armageddon coming […]
Suddenly it is getting crowded in the world of those predicting economic armageddon. In a sense, that is comforting for those of us who were early and few. Once relegated to the lunatic fringe, it appears as though this view is expanding, possibly even going mainstream. .That more are calling for a terrible ending to […]
Suggested stops for the December rankings are provided below. These are mechanical calculations based on ETF volatility. As usual, the first column represents the price at the end of November and the second two columns represent possible stop levels. One is tighter than the other and whether you choose either or set your own is […]
The December rankings and performance of previous rankings are provided below. Suggested stop levels for each of the rankings will be provided in a separate post. December Selections
This update is based on market-close data as of November 22. Performance is based on beginning of that month’s rankings, assuming they were purchased and held for a full month. Stop placement or early selling would produce different results. So, too would different entry or exit prices. There is no way to account for early […]
The ranking of the 11 ETF Asset Classes routinely followed on this site is shown below. These rankings reflect the latest order produced by the algorithm used to rank individual ETFs. There have been some movements in these rankings reflecting recent market action.
The updated performance through November 13 is presented below. Additionally, the new rankings as of this same date are provided. Performance is based on the rankings as of November 1. The assumption is that you bought and held equal dollar amounts within a category and that you still hold these ETFs. If you entered at […]
Monty Pelerin's World discusses economic, political and financial issues from a free market perspective. All Posts
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