David Stockman wrote an intriguing article which appeared in the NY Times. That it appeared in the Times is noteworthy itself, for it contradicts so… Read More »David Stockman Alienates Both Ends of The Political Spectrum
“Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana Ideology is powerful, capable of masking unpleasant facts. Whether we recognize it… Read More »The Keynesian Legacy Unravels
The condition of the US (and world) economy is precarious. Alasdair Sinclair says that money printing is the only thing holding the economy up: We are… Read More »Polite Pessimism Is Not Warranted
For those who think bonds are a safe place to be, you might want to reconsider. In addition to rising sovereign risk (yes, for the… Read More »Why Are Interest Rates So Low?
How this economic disaster ends is something about which many of us speculate. Two extreme endings are likely — a sudden deflationary collapse or a period of very high inflation/hyperinflation which ultimately cripples commerce and resolves itself in a deflationary collapse. In either case, the deflationary collapse is another Great Depression.
It is important to know which route will occur because of what will happen to asset values along the way. A move directly into a Great Depression will depress severely most asset values, especially common stocks, housing and other hard assets. Bonds, cash and fixed incomes may be beneficiaries in the sense that their purchasing power increases.
If the Great Depression is preceded by hyperinflation, just the opposite will happen, at least through the transition stage. Cash, fixed incomes and bonds will be devalued, perhaps even wiped out, if the hyperinflation is severe. Stocks, housing and other assets are likelyRead More »Why High Inflation Is Inevitable
Even if the economy improves (it won’t in any real sense), the changes coming to this country border on the unimaginable for both the enlightened… Read More »The Future Is Determined By the Past
On the roller coaster that we call the stock market, it is easy to miss the forest for the trees. Volatile short-term moves are especially… Read More »The Stock Market in Perspective
Richard Russell, respected investment adviser for over half a century, has been operating at half-speed for him which is full speed for most of us.… Read More »Richard Russell on the Financial Mess
There is no way to reasonably estimate how long the depression will last. Michael Panzner discusses one way to estimate timeframes. Are We There Yet?… Read More »How Far to Go?
Suddenly it is getting crowded in the world of those predicting economic armageddon. In a sense, that is comforting for those of us who were early and few. Once relegated to the lunatic fringe, it appears as though this view is expanding, possibly even going mainstream.
.That more are calling for a terrible ending to the crisis does not ensure that it will occur. It does however make those of us who were mostly alone early on appear less crazy.Some of the predictions below suggest we may be approaching an economic equivalent to a Return to the Planet of the Apes.
Kudos to Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse for providing the 12 quotes shown toward the end of this piece. Two quotes struck me as bracketing the range of views:
It’s over. There is no coming back from this. The only thing that can happen is a total and complete collapse of EVERYTHING we now know, and humanity starts from scratch. And if you think that this collapse is going to play out without one hell of a big hot war, you are sadly, sadly mistaken.
Her economic ending is consistent with my position of the last two years. A war need not happen in a collapse scenario, although politicians have incredible ability to muck things up more than necessary.
Mr. Snyder did not include the following two quotes which seem appropriate:
— Bill Bonner captures matters nicely, agreeing with Ms. Barnhardt except with no mention of war. Here is his conclusion (emboldening added):
… the world is a lot poorer than it was in June. But back then people still thought the Bernanke team was engineering a ‘recovery.’ Now we know, recovery hopes were fantasies. This is not an economy that can recover. It has to die. Then, a new economy will take its place.
— Phoenix Capital Research provides an opinion and what he perceives as proper investment response:
Yes, I believe that before this mess ends, the financial system as a whole will have collapsed. What’s coming is going to make 2008 look like a joke.
If you have yet to prepare yourself for what’s coming, now is the time to do so. Whether it’s by moving to cash and bullion, opening some shorts, or simply getting out of the markets altogether, now is the time to be preparing for what’s coming (remember, stocks took six months to bottom after Lehman… and that was when the Fed still had some bullets left to combat the collapse).
Here are Mr. Snyder’s 12 shocking quotes from different “experts”:
#1 George Soros: “Financial markets are driving the world towards another Great Depression with incalculable political consequences. The authorities, particularly in Europe, have lost control of the situation.”
#2 PIMCO CEO Mohammed El-Erian: “These are all signs of an institutional run on French banks. If it persists, the banks would have no choice Read More »Economic Armageddon Seen As Imminent
The US has now joined Japan in terms of having a “lost decade.” Japan is still far ahead, however, as they are in their third… Read More »A Lost Decade (or More)
I have argued that we are in or inevitably headed for another Great Depression and there is no way to avoid it. Mathematically, we passed… Read More »The Inevitability of Another Great Depression