Monty Pelerin's World

Economics, Finance and Politics Through The Prism of Classical Liberalism

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Greater Depression Ahead

Doug Casey has a lengthy piece on government spending, what is wasted and what can be done about it. Sadly, he concludes as I have, that there is nothing we can do and nothing will be done:

So what can you do about it? Well, actually, there is nothing you can do about it. At least as far as changing the course of history is concerned. The best you can do is to speculate intelligently on further, new distortions that will be cranked into the system, as well as others that are inevitably going to be liquidated.

It seems to me that this is a trend that can no longer be turned around. The US government’s budget is, in fact, the biggest thing in the world; it won’t be turned around, because it is like a gigantic snowball rolling down a hill. It will only stop when it smashes into the village at the bottom of the valley. The best thing you can do is capitalize on it as well as you can and get out of its way while you do.

Mr. Casey sees what he describes as “The Greater Depression” ahead with dangerous implications for our form of government.

Is Europe Over?

John Mauldin’s weekly (free) newsletter is among the best I read. This week’s letter, entitled “The End of Europe?” breaks down the Europe problem simply. Reading this letter will enlighten you why Europe (and the US) is hopeless against simple rules of arithmetic. Its problems may also trigger the financial debacle that collapses the developed world economies.

By the way, Mr. Mauldin’s example below is just as applicable to the US as it is Greece, Italy or any other country going down the debt death spiral. This excerpt is the simple model which Mauldin presents before dealing with specifics:

Let’s assume a country that has a gross domestic product (GDP) of $1,000. In the beginning it taxes its citizens about 25% of GDP and spends the money for the public’s benefit. But alas, it spends about 30% of GDP, so it must borrow the overage (about $50) from its citizens or from the citizens of other countries. Because the country starts out with relatively little debt, interest rates on this loan are low, because those who buy the debt can easily see that the the country can pay them back. If the debt of the country is only 5% of GDP ($50) and the interest rate is 4%, then the amount that must be paid as interest is only about $2 per year. Not a whole lot, about 0.2% of GDP.

But this goes on year after year. Sometimes the deficits get smaller and sometimes they get larger, depending on the economy; but government expenditures grow at the same rate as the country grows, and the debt keeps growing at an average of 5% of GDP per year. Now, if the country is growing at 3% a year, after 24 years the economy will have doubled to $2,000 GDP. That means the debt has grown (roughly) to a total of $1,800, which is now a debt-to-GDP ratio of 90%. Debt has grown faster than the country’s economy. Note that if the country had held its budget down to where it grew slower than GDP, thus reducing its need for debt, that ratio would be lower, even if the debt had grown. You can indeed grow your way out of a debt problem if the growth of government spending is less than the growth of the economy.

But what if the size of government grows to about 50% of GDP, rather than 25% or 30%, over the 24 years, as politicians decide to spend more money and voters decide they want more benefits? (Think France.) Then the private sector must pay about 50% of its production to the state – plus, the debt is now growing unwieldly. The private sector has

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Possession and/or Might Replaces Law

Collapsing civilizations happen infrequently. The process, at least in the beginning, is slow and unnoticed. Even in advanced stages, most people are oblivious to what is happening. They mistake a symptom, economic hard times, with the cause, political corruption.

At some point the political leadership realizes their Ponzi scheme is nearing an end and their positions are at risk. As political fear increases, government behavior changes. Governments begin to do things that would otherwise be unacceptable, even unthinkable. These changes are rationalized as necessary for the good of society when in fact they are mainly made to protect the leadership class.

The US government has passed this point as evidenced by the heretofore unimaginable amounts of taxpayer money used to bail out banks, use of the Federal Reserve in ways never intended and an inability to accomplish even the most rudimentary tasks of government (controlling corruption, producing a budget, controlling spending, etc.).

Contracts and the law no longer seem to matter. That was apparent in the GM bankruptcy when bondholders, in a preferred position in a bankruptcy, had their rights abrogated arbitrarily so that the government could reward unions. It is further apparent in President Obama’s flaunting the Constitution by bypassing Congress. But perhaps the seminal and defining event might be the MF Global failure.

MF Global  has scared many investors, casting doubt upon our developed financial system. They are worried about whether their money is safe in brokerage houses and other financial institutions like banks. The law was violated in the MF Global situation, as explained by Mac Slavo and Barrons:

As the financial house of cards collapses around us, investors who think they are holding real assets with the claim ticket being a stock certificate, bond or even precious metal warehouse receipt better wake up.

The latest revelation from the MF Global ponzi debacle proves, yet again, that if it’s not in your possession you don’t own it. Take heed.

It’s one thing for $1.2 billion to vanish into thin air through a series of complex trades, the well-publicized phenomenon at bankrupt MF Global. It’s something else for a bar of silver stashed in a vault to instantly shrink in size by more than 25%.That, in essence, is what’s happening to investors whose bars of silver and gold were held through accounts with MF Global.

The trustee overseeing the liquidation of the failed brokerage has proposed dumping all remaining customer assets—gold, silver, cash, options, futures and commodities—into a single pool that would pay customers only 72% of the value of their holdings. In other words, while traders already may have paid the full price for delivery of specific bars of gold or silver—and hold “warehouse receipts” to prove it—they’ll have to forfeit 28% of the value.

That has investors fuming. “Warehouse receipts, like gold bars, are our property, 100%,” contends John Roe, a partner in BTR Trading, a Chicago futures-trading firm. He personally lost several hundred thousand dollars in investments via MF Global; his clients lost even more. “We are a unique class, and instead, the trustee is doing a radical redistribution of property,” he says.

Roe and others point out that, unlike other MF Global customers, who held paper assets, those with warehouse receipts have claims on assets that still exist and can be readily identified.

Source: Barron’s via Yahoo

The entire paper system – from stocks to bonds – is coming unhinged. There are trillions of dollars in debt across the world, and all of it is nothing but a number on someone’s balance sheet. In essence, the majority of it exists only in the virtual world. While you may think you have claim to a physical asset in exchange for that certificate, receipt or note, what you really have is a promise from an entity that may very well be insolvent and unable to make good.

Financial institutions and brokerage houses like MF Global are just the tip of the iceberg. The accounting practices of our government are far worse, and the consequences of collapse significantly more dangerous. When MF Global collapsed, customers lost access to their precious metals and other investments. When our monetary system, predicated on the same ponzi scheme as insolvent financial companies, crashes, holder of US dollars, much like those MF Global warehouse receipts, will be wiped out in terms of purchasing power, and it will likely be a devaluation much more than just 25%.

But when that happens the holders of those notes won’t be trying to cash them in for precious metals. Rather, they will find that their paper Federal Reserve Notes will buy far less food and gas, if any at all.

We are witnessing a complete and total assault on the Constitution and the Rule of Law by corrupt politicians. The system is on the verge of collapse and they are desperate. The political elite and their cronies will do anything — ANYTHING! — to protect themselves and what they deem as their rightful spoils.

Perhaps “mattress investing” is the safest of all.

Armageddon Dead Ahead

We are living through the death throes of an empire. For those citizens who understand what is occurring, the process is akin to being trapped in a taxicab where the meter is on and running at an infinite pace. We cannot get out; nor will we be able to pay when the bill is submitted.

Government Duplicity

The duplicity and outright lies of government are becoming more apparent. There are too many to list here. Here are a few:

  • Favorable forecasts regarding the economy are cruel jokes to everyone, but especially to those unemployed and underemployed. The country is told that the economy is out of the woods and on its way, recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s. No one with an IQ higher than room temperature or the ability to see should believe that.
  • The Obama Administration stumbled badly with their first major promise. We were told that if the stimulus package was passed, unemployment would not exceed 7%. It was passed and unemployment soared over 10%. The package had no promised shovel-ready jobs and turned out to be the biggest pork bill ever. Virtually nothing went to Main Street to help individuals. Unions, government employees and other Democrat constituents were the primary beneficiaries along with the banking industry. President Reagan, like President Obama, inherited a difficult situation when he entered office. To the right is a comparison of what happened under Reagan and under Obama. The chart compares unemployment rates. Changes in the manner in which unemployment is currently measured favorably distort the unmitigated disaster that is Obama’s economic policy. Adjusting data to the same basis, would make the comparison even worse.
  • To issue such an unemployment forecast, the Obama Administration had to be either desperate, economically illiterate, lying or just stupid. Feel free to pick from multiple categories is making your judgment. If that one forecast were all that was involved, there would be little need to harp. Yet every subsequent pronouncement or projection has similarly been wrong, often in similar magnitude. I have not checked all the statements, projections and claims, but I do not recall a single major economic promise or projection being correct. Many have resulted in additional outright lies to cover the impotency of this administration.
  • The projections of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke are no better.  He is the only one who might be able to compete with Administration economists for worst forecaster of all time. Again, without checking every major item, I think he is batting 1,000 in terms of incorrect projections. YouTube and other websites provide ample evidence, mocking his dismal forecasting record.

Despite record stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, the economy has not improved. The declaration of the end of the recession was reminiscent of George W. Bush’s premature claims of victory in Iraq but was a necessary part of  of the pretend and extend game that government must play. There is no escape from an economic apocalypse, hence much of the duplicity.

An Economic Collapse Is Unavoidable

It would not be too late to avoid this collapse if this were a corporation operating in a free market. In that case, a hard-nosed, savvy turnaround specialist could come in and save the company by slashing spending mercilessly. But we are dealing with a political entity run by political animals who are neither very smart nor very brave. In such a situation and especially today where leadership is absent in either political party, there will be no solution. Competing interests and entitlements are too entrenched. Politicians behave only to get re-elected and no one has ever run for office successfully by promising to cut programs. Imagine the slogan: “Vote for me and this is a list of things I will take away from you.” Thus, it is impossible to avoid the coming disaster.

The economy continues to worsen because we have squandered and continue to squander valuable resources in an attempt to avoid doing the right things. The political class has chosen to protect their positions by pretending that matters are getting better. The economic system is now so burdened with debt, price distortions and asset mis-allocations that we are on the verge of an economic collapse. When this happens or what of the many incidents that might trigger it is anyone’s guess.

The best efforts of both government and their media cronies are devoted to covering up

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Mia Love Looks Like A Winner

Here is someone worth supporting in politics. Her name is Mia Love and you can learn more about her here.

Euro To Die This Year?

Phoenix Capital Research predicts the Euro won’t survive 2012. So does James Quinn in his annual forecast among many others.

Most prognosticators deliberately provide a fuzzy time frame with their forecasts. It is prudent to do so. The prediction is likely true, although whether it will occur in 2012 or not is debatable.

There is great staying power for governments and institutions. They always take longer to die than reasonable estimates suggest. Extra longevity comes from their ability to ignore laws and contracts and utilize coercion on their citizens in the form of increased taxation, capital controls and often outright confiscation. Will the Euro die? Yes. Will it die in 2012? It may well do so, although be ready for whatever means possible to avoid that ending. The elites and their cronies are powerful. They have no interest is seeing the Euro die.

With that reservation in mind, here is Phoenix Capital Research’s take:

The Euro-zone in its current form is in its final chapter. Anyone who argues otherwise is not paying attention.

Consider the Greek situation. Greece’s debt problems first made mainstream media headline news at the beginning of 2009. The IMF/ EU/ ECB/ and Federal Reserve have been working on this situation for two years now. And they’ve yet to solve anything: after two bailouts, significant debt write-downs, and numerous austerity measures, Greece remains bankrupt.

Now, if the Powers That Be cannot solve Greece’s problems… what makes anyone think that they can address larger, more dangerous issues such as Italy or France, etc?

Consider that the world’s central banks staged a coordinated intervention in November… and Italy’s ten year is back yielding more than 7% less than two months later. Again, a coordinated intervention by the world’s central banks bought less than two months’ time for Italy.

And now we find the debt contagion spreading to France:

French Debt Costs Rise at Bond Sale as AAA Decision Looms

France sold 7.96 billion euros ($10.2 billion) of debt, with 10-year borrowing costs rising in the country’s first bond auction of the year as credit-rating companies threaten to cut the nation’s AAA grade.

The government sold 4.02 billion euros of the bonds maturing in October 2021 at an average yield of 3.29 percent, from 3.18 percent on Dec. 1. The euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar in 15 months, and the extra yield investors demand to hold French 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds widened to the most in about six weeks.

“There’s still the threat of a downgrade hanging over France and until … [Continue reading here]

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