The magnitude in the housing crisis and its impact on the economy, likely for years to come, is captured in this excerpt from Mish: The Foreclosure Pipeline in New York [...]
Housing
Government intervention in the economy always makes matters worse economically. The reason is that all interventions are undertaken to prevent outcomes deemed by the market to be undesirable. Interventions are coercion in in that they attempt to produce outcomes that otherwise would not occur in markets. They are also undemocratic because markets are nothing more than voting machines where the votes are cast by millions of consumers and producers. All interventions attempt to prevent the desired outcomes of these voters.
An intervention may appear to work in the short-run.
It may help some groups at the expense of others, providing one political party votes at the expense of the other. The net result, however, is a mis-allocation of resources from what consumers/investors desire, producing an otherwise smaller economy and less satisfaction in the long run. This distortion in incentives/disincentives always plays out eventually.
When the interventions are particularly egregious and pursued for lengthy periods of time, the effects become especially noticeable. Sometimes the results prove to be catastrophic, as in the case of the housing bubble in the US. Despite the crash in housing prices, the government is again trying to raise housing prices, doing much of the same nonsense that caused the bubble. To the extent they are successful (doubtful), they are recreating the conditions for another eventual crash.
To understand the interplay of politics in economics and why it is harmful, read Richard Fulmer‘s article on the housing fiasco. In it, he speculates that the government is blowing another bubble in housing. The tricks, distortions and machinations the political class goes through to rationalize the previous crash and yet is doing the exact same things again should be of interest. Financial institutions are being sued for what they did at the same time the government is requiring them to continue. A mini-study in why central planning always fails.
Mr. Fulmer concludes his piece as follows:
Three years after the housing bust, the Federal Reserve is still following easy-credit policies. Last September it doubled down with an announced purchase of $400 billion in longer-term Treasury securities hoping to lower long-term interest rates and thereby boost spending and investment. At the same time the government is continuing to pressure banks to make risky loans and sell them to Freddie and Fannie, which were taken over by the government after they went bankrupt. (Last fall Freddie said it needed to borrow $6 billion more from the Treasury after it lost $4.4 billion in the third quarter of the year.) The new twist is that federal regulators are now suing banks for doing what the government demanded, and is still demanding, that they do. This is not too surprising given Washington’s need to pin the blame on someone, anyone, other than Washington. The politicians and regulators also need to be looking ahead, though, for the villains on whom they can blame the new and bigger bust that they currently have in the works. It is nothing short of breathtaking. But then, blowing bubbles always is.

Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly. Obama, in full campaign mode, continues to spend money as if we have it. He talks about the deficit problem while he continues to make it worse.
As Financial Armageddon pointed out with this recent listing of news articles, we don’t need new spending to exceed projections for the year. Prior spending is out of control and indicative of a government nearing collapse:
“Freddie Mac Has Wider Loss, Seeks $6 Billion From Treasury” (Bloomberg)
Freddie Mac, one of two mortgage- finance companies under U.S. conservatorship, reported a $4.4 billion loss for the third quarter and said it will seek $6 billion from the U.S. Treasury Department.
The company, confronted with a weak housing market and losses on derivatives, will draw on its Treasury cash lifeline to eliminate a net-worth deficit of $6 billion for the three- month period ending Sept. 30, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing today.
Today’s request brings Freddie Mac’s total Treasury draw to $72.2 billion.
“FHA May Need U.S. Taxpayer Aid to Bolster Reserves as Net Worth Nears Zero” (Bloomberg)
The Federal Housing Administration may need taxpayer aid or higher premiums to bolster its mortgage insurance fund after reserves fell to a record low this year, according to an analysis presented to Congress.
The FHA, which has paid out $37 billion in claims related to defaulted mortgages in the past three years, faces a 50 percent chance of having to raise money because its net worth has fallen to near zero, according to an independent analysis cited in the agency’s annual actuarial report released today.
“Fannie Mae Asks Taxpayers for Another Bailout” (Christian Science Monitor)
Fannie Mae wants $7.8 billion from the federal government to cover loses. Fannie Mae has already received bailout money to the tune of $112.6 billion.
Mortgage giant Fannie Mae is asking the federal government for $7.8 billion in aid to cover its losses in the July-September quarter.
The government-controlled company said Tuesday that it lost $7.6 billion in the third quarter. Low mortgage rates reduced profits and declining home prices caused more defaults on loans it had guaranteed.
The government rescued Fannie Mae and sibling company Freddie Mac in September 2008 to cover their losses on soured mortgage loans. Since then, a federal regulator has controlled their financial decisions.
“Post Office Near Default? Losses Mount to $5.1B” (Associated Press)
The U.S. Postal Service said Tuesday it has lost $5.1 billion in the past year, pushing it closer to imminent default on a multibillion-dollar payment and to future bankruptcy as the weak economy and increased Internet use drive down mail volume.
The financial losses for the year ended Sept. 30 came despite deep cuts of more than 130,000 jobs in recent years and the closing of some smaller local post offices.
Losses will only accelerate in the coming year, Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe warned, citing faster-than-expected declines in first-class mail. He implored Congress to take swift, wide-ranging action to stabilize the ailing agency’s finances as it nears a legal deadline Friday to pay $5.5 billion into the U.S. Treasury for future retiree health benefits.
Congress is expected to grant a reprieve, but that will only delay the day of reckoning for an agency struggling for relevance in an electronic age. Based on current losses, the Postal Service says it will run out of money — or come dangerously close — next September, forcing it to halt service.
“U.S. Boosts Estimate of Auto Bailout Losses to $23.6B” (Detroit News)
The Treasury Department dramatically boosted its estimate of losses from its $85 billion auto industry bailout by more than $9 billion in the face of General Motors Co.’s steep stock decline.
In its monthly report to Congress, the Treasury Department now says it expects to lose $23.6 billion, up from its previous estimate of $14.33 billion.
The Treasury now pegs the cost of the bailout of GM, Chrysler Group LLC and the auto finance companies at $79.6 billion. It no longer includes $5 billion it set aside to guarantee payments to auto suppliers in 2009.
The big increase is a reflection of the sharp decline in the value of GM’s share price.
“U.S. Pension Insurer’s Deficit Hits Record $26 Billion” (Los Angeles Times)
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.’s finances last year were hurt by the weak economy. Its director says it eventually may need a bailout from taxpayers.
WASHINGTON — The federal agency that insures pensions for 1 in 7 Americans ran the largest deficit last year in its 37-year history.
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. said it ran a $26-billion imbalance for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
The agency has been battered by the weak economy, which has brought more bankruptcies and failed pension plans.
Its pension obligations rose $4.5 billion. The PBGC also earned less money in the stock market, which helps to fund pension plans. Returns were $3.6 billion, half what it earned the previous year.
The agency’s director said taxpayers may have to bail out the agency eventually if Congress doesn’t raise companies’ insurance premiums. He didn’t give a time frame.
“Taxpayer Costs Balloon to $8 Billion under Farm Insurance Program” (Environmental Working Group)
New analysis shows private companies raked in profits and delivered big payouts to agribusiness
Washington, D.C. – A newly released report on subsidized federal revenue insurance for industrial crop farmers shows that the government has failed to control its costs and big insurance companies and agents continue to reap billions of dollars in windfall profits. Environmental Working Group, which has long advocated meaningful reform of this misguided policy, commissioned economics professor Dr. Bruce Babcock of Iowa State University to do the analysis.
“It confirmed our worst fears,” said Craig Cox, EWG’s Senior Vice President of Agriculture and Natural Resources.
According to the report, program costs have increased exponentially – tripling to $8 billion since 2000 – and the insurance policies have enticed farmers to buy the most expensive policies, which carry high premiums that are heavily subsidized by taxpayers.
The current economic crisis rivals the one of the 1930s. Despite shameless propaganda by government and its cronies in the media, people understand that the situation is getting worse. Consumer confidence continues to decline as does confidence in the future.
We are headed for an event that history will record as worse than The Great Depression. It is unavoidable.
The Level of Debt
The principal reason for the dire prediction is the level of debt outstanding. Current debt levels are simply not sustainable. Assets and cash flows cannot support or service this debt.
No economic recovery can occur without massive debt reduction. As shown below, current debt is much higher than the 1930s:
As a percentage of GDP, debt is at an all-time high. Immediately prior to the Great Depression US debt was about 200% of GDP. It rose briefly to 300% as a result of massive government interventions to combat the Depression.
At the beginning of the current downturn, debt was Continue reading »

The scam that is government continues. The latest attempt to “solve” the housing crisis is what got us into this mess in the first place. Here is Zerohedge’s take:
The core of the announced transitions to HARP revolve around allowing borrowers to refinance mortgages regardless of how underwater homes are. Of note is the “enhancement” which removes “the current 125 percent LTV ceiling for fixed-rate mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” In other words, one can have negative equity equal to the full amount of the loan or more, and still be able to refinance into current record low mortgage rates (something which last week’s near record drop in MBA refi rates of -17% may not be too optimistic on). That said, considering HARP’s abysmal success record to date, with just 894,000 borrowers having refinanced using this subsidy program (considering anywhere between a third and half of all US mortgages are underwater), and since it is far more economic to be delinquent on one’s loans than to refinance and actually have to pay something out of pocket in these here USS of A, we expect even this latest revision to be a massive failure. In fact, the only data that matters is the public announcement on November 3 and 4th of how many tens of billions in retail “top line” the GSEs will need to be funded for by the US Treasury, because at this point one thing is all too clear: the nationalized US mortgage industry, in which ever fewer people actually make any cash payments, is nothing but a massive subsidy pass thru vehicle for domestic retailer operations.
It is unclear who is going bankrupt faster, troubled homeowners or the US government. Regardless, the country is slowly being bankrupted by the idiots in Washington. Einstein would pronounce these elected officials insane because they keep doing the same thing with the expectation that results will differ.
Housing In A NutshellHat Tip to Reader NII with my note after the graph: Short run thinking by politicians permitted mortgage credit to excessively expand. Credit expansion shifts consumption from the future to [...] |
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Housing Prices Continue DownwardThe Housing Crisis moves inexorably on, like a glacier — slow-moving but unstoppable. Despite government wasting trillions of dollars in an attempt to prop up housing, economic laws prevail. Keynesian [...] |
Foreclosure From SatelliteA frightening satellite look at America’s housing problem: Satellite Tour Of America’s Foreclosure Wastelands. Share/Save Download article as PDF |
You Never Truly Own Your HomeMish provides a take on “owning” a home that few realize: Perpetual Liabilities: An endless note on your house you can never pay off by noreply@blogger.com (Michael Shedlock) 4 people liked [...] |
Home Values Still DecliningThe severity of the housing collapse is neatly captured in this graph. Other than in a few markets, there are no signs the decline has ended. The social implications of [...] |


Why Housing Has a Long Way to Fall and Why Banks May Topple
Propping up Housing impossible and losing support
The Mortgage Market has been Nationalized
You Never Truly Own Your Home
FHA Next Taxpayer Bailout
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