By Monty Pelerin, on December 27th, 2009 We’re Screwed!
ShadowStats.com founder John Williams explains the risk of hyperinflation. Worst-case scenario? Rioting in the streets and devolution to a bartering system.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
By Phil Maymin
[Gold is] going to be highly volatile, as will the dollar, over the near term, but longer term, physical gold I would look at as a primary hedge for preserving the purchasing power of your wealth and assets. Maybe some physical silver. Get some assets outside the U.S. dollar. I might even look to move some assets physically outside the United States. The key here is to look at a longer range survival package, battening down the hatches, and preserving your wealth and assets during a very difficult time. Once you’re through that, you’ll have some extraordinary investment opportunities, and I can’t tell you what it’s going to be like on the other side of this crisis.
Courtesy of John Williams
Economist/statistician John Williams shifts through the government’s rose-tinted data
Dr. Phil Maymin is an Assistant Professor of Finance and Risk Engineering at NYU-Polytechnic Institute.
Do you believe everything the government tells you? Economist and statistician John Williams sure doesn’t. Williams, who has consulted for individuals and Fortune 500 companies, now uncovers the truth behind the U.S. government’s economic numbers on his Web site at ShadowStats.com. Williams says, over the last several decades, the feds have been infusing their data with optimistic biases to make the economy seem far rosier than it really is. His site reruns the numbers using the original methodology.
Continue reading John Williams on Hyperinflation
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By Monty Pelerin, on December 21st, 2009 More on false optimism regarding the economy.
False Positive Signals For The Economy
18 December 2009 6 Comments
By Greg Hunter
According to economist John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics (SGS), we are getting “… false positive signals…” for monthly numbers such as retail sales and unemployment. So, a recovery looks like it is taking place when a deeper analysis into the government numbers shows it is not. Williams says in his latest report, “Generally, the economy continues to sink or bottom-bounce; no recovery is in place.”
A perfect example of a false positive is the seasonally-adjusted retail sales data from last year compared to now. In November 2008, we were in the middle of a financial meltdown. When you simply compare this November to last November, it looks like there are improving sales. But if you compare November 2009 to normal years when we were not in a meltdown, such as 2006 and 2007, then retail sales have fallen slightly.
The government has recently been reporting low inflation numbers and, in fact, inflation has gone down because of the ongoing financial crisis. But this month, inflation bounced back according to Williams. The annual Consumer Price Index jumped to 8.8%. Williams calculates inflation the way the government did it before 1980. He does that to get a truer read of the “real” inflation picture. In my mind, this is the real cost of maintaining your standard of “living” as opposed to maintaining the cost of “surviving.” The cost
Continue reading What Recovery?
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By Monty Pelerin, on December 16th, 2009 Years ago, I taught for a few years in an historically-black university. On occasion I would startle the class by stating that, if the Grand Dragon of the Ku Klux Klan were an absolute dictator ruling this country, he could not design a more effective set of policies to harm blacks and the poor than those already in place. It was an attention-grabbing statement that was effective, especially in an era where all progress was assumed to come via government. It was an especially effective way to differentiate between the intent versus the result of economic policy, a focus seemingly lost in our politicized world where only intent seems to matter.
Over the course of the semester, innumerable opportunities presented themselves to reinforce this principle. While valid over and above race or class, it was pedagogically valuable to relate it to various racial sacred cows. Several of the works of Thomas Sowell and Walter Williams, two black conservative economists, were useful in this effort. Williams’ State Against Blacks was especially useful.
One of the simplest myths to dispel was that of minimum wage. Walter Williams provides just such an article below.
Collusion Against Our Youth
Walter E. Williams
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
I’ve grown somewhat weary writing about the devastating effects of minimum wage laws but The Wall Street Journal’s “Black Youths Miss Out on Good Job News,” (Dec. 4, 2009) warrants another try. Today’s overall teenage (16-19) unemployment rate, at 25 percent, is the highest since World
Continue reading Sacred Cows and Economic Realities
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By Monty Pelerin, on December 15th, 2009 One of the better economic analysts is John Williams at Shadowstats.com. When he speaks, one should listen carefully. He has just done so:
The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.
Williams site is both free and subscription-based. I believe the current report is only available to subscribers. Tyler Durden included much of it on his site Zerohedge. To read it, click here.
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By Monty Pelerin, on December 8th, 2009 John Williams of Shadowstats.com is an outstanding analyst. In this interview he details what our problems are and why they are NOT solvable. Do not listen with sharp objects nearby or above the first floor of a building. Might not hurt to have a stiff drink or two also.
John Williams Interview – King World News
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Friedrich von Hayek
Friedrich von Hayek founded the Mont Pelerin Society.
“Monty Pelerin” is a pseudonym chosen by this blogger to convey general agreement with the philosophy, goals and spirit of the Mont Pelerin Society. No other connection exists between the blogger and the Society.
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