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Stocks Overvalued
Bill Bonner’s posts are always well-written and informative. He posts daily in a free newsletter and is associated with The Daily Reckoning, a site you might want to look at. Here is Bill’s daily post:
This is One Funny Looking Bull by Bill Bonner London, England The longer the rally persists, the more dangerous it becomes. The S&P 500 is up almost 60% since March. The Dow just had its best quarter since '98. Yesterday, the Dow slipped 29 points. Is the rally finally rolling over? Or is this a genuine bull market, just taking a pause? If it is a real bull market, then it's a funny looking bull - one that's missing parts! For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued, on a cyclically adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co. And if you look at it in terms of its "q" ratio - a comparison of capitalization to replacement costs - the S&P is even more overvalued. As for emerging markets - "they're off the charts," says The Financial Times. Another missing part is the consumer. This from David Rosenberg: "Consumer confidence not only surprised to the downside in September but the Conference Board index actually fell to 53.1 from 54.5 with both the 'present situation' and the 'expectations' component failing to build on the August rebound. Before we go any further on the details, let's recall the following:
Truth and Humor
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