Skip to content

Other

Monty Pelerin’s Other Posts

Stocks Overvalued

Bill Bonner’s posts are always well-written and informative. He posts daily in a free newsletter and is associated with The Daily Reckoning, a site you might want to look at.  Here is Bill’s daily post:

This is One Funny Looking Bull
by Bill Bonner
London, England

The longer the rally persists, the more dangerous it becomes.

The S&P 500 is up almost 60% since March. The Dow just had its best
quarter since '98. 

Yesterday, the Dow slipped 29 points. Is the rally finally rolling
over? Or is this a genuine bull market, just taking a pause?

If it is a real bull market, then it's a funny looking bull - one
that's missing parts! 

For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far
above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market
35% overvalued, on a cyclically adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.
And if you look at it in terms of its "q" ratio - a comparison of
capitalization to replacement costs - the S&P is even more overvalued.
As for emerging markets - "they're off the charts," says The Financial
Times.

Another missing part is the consumer. This from David Rosenberg:

"Consumer confidence not only surprised to the downside in September
but the Conference Board index actually fell to 53.1 from 54.5 with
both the 'present situation' and the 'expectations' component failing
to build on the August rebound. Before we go any further on the
details, let's recall the following:

Truth and Humor

Rolfe Winkler Navigating the Capital Jungle « Previous Post September 30th, 2009 BlogArt: The money you could be saving… Click to enlarge in new window

Chameleon Principles

America has produced its share of radicals, both left and right.  Although the definitions of “radical” have shifted over time (our Founding Fathers would be… 

What Future?

An interesting interview on CNBC about the dollar, gold and the fix that the Fed finds itself in. There are a couple of points to… 

Return to Top