Investing Thoughts

April Update and Mid-Month Rankings

This post is a follow-on from the Mid-April Results, published earlier today. It is for Preferred Members. Markets were quite the roller coaster today. From 1:00 PM to the close, SPY rose close to 3 points. There is a great battle underway between the bulls and the bears as to which direction these markets will head next. This fight produces [...]

Mid-April Results

There is, as the saying goes, good news and bad news regarding markets. First, the bad news — markets have been terrible so far this year. All benchmarks representing major market segments are negative. There is some good news, at least of a minor sort, for preferred members: Each market benchmark is off less than 1% year-to-date, although the volatility [...]

General Market Commentary — ETFs

Markets began this week on a high note but continue to behave erratically. I recently wrote a piece entitled “Do You Belong in the Stock Market?” which I encourage you to read if you haven’t already. Under normal circumstances, the answer for most of us to this question would likely be a resounding “no.” Alas, circumstances are not normal and [...]

Do You Belong In The Stock Market?

How bad have markets been recently? If you are watching them day by day or week by week recently, they seem severe. Is this reaction because we have been spoiled and expect markets to always go up? Or, is something else going on? This chart shows SPY from January 2012 to the present. Each bar represents a week of activity: [...]

Today’s Markets

Equity markets are getting hammered today. All major US averages are now down for the year. The sell-off today is driving down International markets as well. At 1:00 PM EST the declines seem to be picking up speed. Precious metals are holding up, thus far. If you are betting on these markets, (and yes, “betting” as in gambling is the [...]

Early April Selection Results

This post is a short update for Preferred Members. Today was a great day for US equities (yesterday was good also), but current markets have wide swings and are erratic. I believe there were four consecutive down days prior to yesterday. Expect the volatility to continue as we approach May. Will the “sell in May and go away” dampen markets? [...]

Insanity Has No Borders

Markets ignoring fundamental economic circumstances are not limited to the US or other developed countries. Liquidity knows no boundaries and seeps into places unforeseen. The following chart from Zerohedge just amazes: Societies do not hold together when the young are unemployed, restless and envious. The Greek bond market seems willing to ignore the fact that nearly 60% of Greek youth [...]

Precious Metals — It’s Time

There are reasons to hold precious metals, especially as our monetary system begins to creak, groan and possibly collapse. Whatever your thoughts regarding this investment class, perhaps it is time to reevaluate. If you have precious metals as a part of your portfolio, perhaps you should consider increasing their role. If you have none, consider adding some. “This time is [...]

Investing In A Pretend Economy

We live in a pretend economy. It is important to recognize this condition, especially if you are an investor. Current market behavior is concerning.  Bonds and stocks remain volatile and near record levels. Markets ignore the continuing stagnation in the pretend economy, buoyed apparently by government liquidity injections. To justify investing today in these markets, one must anticipate one or [...]

April Rankings and March Results

Markets continue to confound both me and the rankings system. March is over, and none too soon as far as I am concerned. Caution was suggested for March, including cutting back on allocations. While markets were rollercoaster in nature, the benchmark indices did OK. Spy was up 0.83%, EFA was down 0.46% and EEM was up a whopping 3.88%. Unfortunately, [...]

Some Momentum Ranking System History

The following is an excerpt from a recent report on markets. It summarizes the rankings system performance since 2007. It and some commentary below might be of value to non-Preferred Members who receive a full report last week. Perferred Members need not read any further. Markets thus far have been difficult. Last year was almost a lay-up, to put things [...]

Market Update For Preferred Members

Aren’t these markets fun? No, they are not! Up, down, up, down …. If you get sick on carnival rides, these markets are not for you. The market is trying to digest a lot of information, much of it conflicting. After the usual review, I will make a comment on what I believe is an under-appreciated threat — Ukraine. All [...]