Investing Thoughts

Financial Markets — Rated “R”

Financial markets are complex in normal times. When government is actively supporting them, they only become more so and more dangerous. If today’s financial markets were rated like movies, they would be rated “R” (perhaps, “X”). Whether the “R” stands for risky or restricted is immaterial. These markets are not for the naive or unseasoned investor. Traditional metrics no longer [...]

July Update

Today’s update for Preferred Members is a bit early (it usually is closer to mid-month). I shall be vacationing for most of next week which means uncertain access to data, software and the internet. Hence, this early report. (Another one will likely follow next weekend.) This  update is informational rather than actionable.  New rankings as of July 10 are provided. The [...]

July Interim Performance

Just a quick update on the selections for July. As of market close on July 9, there have been seven trading days. The data is shown below for five, ten and fifteen trading days, but it may serve as an appropriate rough look at how the various selections are performing. The five day and ten day bound what seven days [...]

Market Correction Fodder

For those forecasting a market correction in equities, they will be right at some point. The numbers doing so are increasing as the metrics supporting  a market correction grow. Unfortunately there is no way to know which forecast or which time frame to believe. Precision, in this regard, is less important than direction. Protection need not be precise to avoid [...]

Respect The Stock Market

While the stock market remains undecipherable, it is comforting to know that others, even highly-skilled professionals, have the same difficulties/reactions reconciling current market levels to economic reality. This quote from Zerohedge  was from an article in the WSJ: Steve Eisman, who emerged as one of the stars of the financial crisis with a winning bet against mortgages, has wound up his [...]

“JobsFraud” Report — Half Million Full-Time Jobs Gone

The market seems desperate for good news as it responded the the jobs report. It actually was a lousy jobs report! Why markets reacted to the upside on this information is beyond me. Let’s call the headline number “jobsfraud.” If businesses reported information this carelessly they would be taken to court. This graph courtesy of Zerohedge is all that is [...]

Minor Update to June Performance and July Selections

This is a minor update to the July selections. It details the picks as of close of markets on June 30. Recall, the selections were originally submitted one day prior to the last trading day in June. There is little reason to tweek anything unless you are a stickler for detail. The selections today are similar. The minor changes are [...]

Protective Measures In Dangerous Financial Markets

The downside potential in today’s financial markets demands protective measures be employed for those who continue to participate. The risks are as high as I can remember. That is not meant as a prediction that markets are going to move down. In ordinary markets, it is unwise to make predictions. In  government-manipulated markets, that is more so. All markets eventually reflect  true value, [...]

Price Inflation Begins

The notion that inflation is not something to worry about is beginning to be questioned. Actually, anyone that understands monetary economics or the true definition of inflation knows that it has already occurred. Now it is beginning to show up in prices of food, energy and other commodities. Here are two headlines from Zerohedge: Gold Spikes To 3-Month Highs Copper Surges To [...]

Using The PPI

This post re-introduces the PPI, Pelerin Performance Indicator, as a tool to be used in conjunction with the momentum-volatility rankings. PPI Indicator The PPI is a proprietary indicator. Actually, there are three PPI Indicators — Short, Intermediate (Composite) and Long-term. The short and long-term versions consist of a collection of trend indicators, each weighted in a manner that produces values [...]

Selections For July

The risks of a market correction are becoming greater as discussed in a previous piece. Year-to-date, all portfolios are positive. The Inflation Hedge portfolio has produced the highest returns at 8.3%. This report is one day early. That is, June still has one more trading day. These results and rankings are through the close of market on June 27, a [...]

Are Financial Markets Too Risky?

Financial markets have become unusually risky. The divergence between financial asset prices and underlying economic conditions is large and produces great risk. Should I Stay In Financial Markets? A question I am frequently asked is “Should I remain in financial  markets?” The flip answer is “What’s your alternative?” “Financial repression,” engineered by the policies of the Federal Reserve, has changed financial markets rather [...]