Preliminary August Portfolios

As per last month, the rankings for next month are coming out one day early. These rankings are based on data through July 30 and represent the August selections. If the last day’s trading causes changes, they will be reported to you on August 1. The rankings contained below are for the month of August. The one-day lead time provides the [...]

Priced For Perfection

What happens when financial assets are priced for perfection? When that happens, there is only one direction they can go — down! Beyond Priced For Perfection It appears that we have voided that old truism today. Markets appear higher than priced for perfection. They are at or near record highs while the world beneath them seems to be crumbling both economically and politically. [...]

Economic and Financial Myth-making

Current financial markets are especially dangerous as a result of government myth-making. Fiscal and monetary interventions and manipulations have distorted all markets, but especially financial markets. The flood of liquidity by the Federal Reserve has done little for the economy although has juiced the level of financial asset prices. This effect is not accidental and is part of the myth-making [...]

Weights In ETF Rankings Change

A change in weights in the algorithm that ranks ETFs for the Preferred Member service has been made. This post is not protected so that non-Preferred Members can get an idea of how the two most popular portfolios performed over time. The universe of ETFs and the number and size of the portfolios remain the same. So do the overall weights [...]

Financial Markets — Rated “R”

Financial markets are complex in normal times. When government is actively supporting them, they only become more so and more dangerous. If today’s financial markets were rated like movies, they would be rated “R” (perhaps, “X”). Whether the “R” stands for risky or restricted is immaterial. These markets are not for the naive or unseasoned investor. Traditional metrics no longer [...]

July Update

Today’s update for Preferred Members is a bit early (it usually is closer to mid-month). I shall be vacationing for most of next week which means uncertain access to data, software and the internet. Hence, this early report. (Another one will likely follow next weekend.) This  update is informational rather than actionable.  New rankings as of July 10 are provided. The [...]

July Interim Performance

Just a quick update on the selections for July. As of market close on July 9, there have been seven trading days. The data is shown below for five, ten and fifteen trading days, but it may serve as an appropriate rough look at how the various selections are performing. The five day and ten day bound what seven days [...]

Market Correction Fodder

For those forecasting a market correction in equities, they will be right at some point. The numbers doing so are increasing as the metrics supporting  a market correction grow. Unfortunately there is no way to know which forecast or which time frame to believe. Precision, in this regard, is less important than direction. Protection need not be precise to avoid [...]

Respect The Stock Market

While the stock market remains undecipherable, it is comforting to know that others, even highly-skilled professionals, have the same difficulties/reactions reconciling current market levels to economic reality. This quote from Zerohedge  was from an article in the WSJ: Steve Eisman, who emerged as one of the stars of the financial crisis with a winning bet against mortgages, has wound up his [...]

“JobsFraud” Report — Half Million Full-Time Jobs Gone

The market seems desperate for good news as it responded the the jobs report. It actually was a lousy jobs report! Why markets reacted to the upside on this information is beyond me. Let’s call the headline number “jobsfraud.” If businesses reported information this carelessly they would be taken to court. This graph courtesy of Zerohedge is all that is [...]

Minor Update to June Performance and July Selections

This is a minor update to the July selections. It details the picks as of close of markets on June 30. Recall, the selections were originally submitted one day prior to the last trading day in June. There is little reason to tweek anything unless you are a stickler for detail. The selections today are similar. The minor changes are [...]

Protective Measures In Dangerous Financial Markets

The downside potential in today’s financial markets demands protective measures be employed for those who continue to participate. The risks are as high as I can remember. That is not meant as a prediction that markets are going to move down. In ordinary markets, it is unwise to make predictions. In  government-manipulated markets, that is more so. All markets eventually reflect  true value, [...]