Treasury

 

Bill Gross

Bill Gross as head of Pimco was the largest non-sovereign investor in US Treasuries. He sold all his bonds and reportedly even went short. It does not appear he will return to Treasuries for a while (perhaps not in his lifetime).

From an interview on CNBC (video available), Jeff Cox reported Gross’ view of the US:

When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.

Gross apparently concurs with the assessment that QE3 will follow QE2. His reasoning is apparently in agreement with mine. Without it, the government will be unable to pay its bills.

“We’ve always wondered who will buy Treasurys” after the Federal Reserve purchases the last of its $600 billion to end the second leg of its quantitative easing program later this month, Gross said. “It’s certainly not Pimco and it’s probably not the bond funds of the world.”

Government spending and government debt is near a crisis point. Savvy investors (likely also an “insider” to government intentions) like Mr. Gross are protecting themselves and their bondholders.

 

We live in interesting and dangerous times. Is this the beginning of a run from Treasuries by foreigners?

There was one truly interesting observation in this week’s Fed balance sheet update: not that the actual balance sheet hit a new all time record (which it did at $2.779 trillion), or that the Fed added another $24 billion in Treasurys to its balance sheet, or that total reserves hit a new all time record, increasing by $53 billion to $1.59 trillion. No. The biggest surprise was that in the just ended week, Treasury securities held in custodial accounts at the Fed, considered by some the best real-time representation of foreign holdings of US Treasurys considering that the TIC update is not only wildly inaccurate in its monthly update, but is also 3 months delayed, dropped by the largest amount in 4 years. From a total of $2.704 trillion, USTs held in custodial accounts declined by $18.7 billion to $2.685 billion. This is the second largest decline in history, only topped by the $22.1 billion in the week of August 15, 2007 which is the week that followed the great quant crash of 2007 that wiped out, among others, Goldman Alpha. This observation is in stark contrast to the recent record strength of bond issuance, after both the 5 and 7 Years auctions posted record Bid to Cover investor interest.

When it begins, it is liable to be so quick that no protective action will be possible.

Read more from this article at http://www.traderview.com/global_insights.cfm

 

The Treasury is out of money, but not out of games. According to Zerohedge.com:

Now that it has finally been made clear that in order to accommodate the debt ceiling by adding marketable debt, the Treasury has no choice but to literally plunder retirement accounts, we now know that in order to fit in the just announced $110 billion in new bond issuance over the next week, Tim Geithner will have to reduce US retirement funding (the bulk of which, the Social Security Trust Fund already lost $1.1 trillion in the past year) by at least $45 billion. That is the net result of $60 billion in net new cash and $15 billion in bill paydowns which will settle between May 19 and May 31. What remains to be seen is just how much cash the Treasury will bleed as it seeks a parallel track of under-rolling maturing Bills, in order to keep its previously disclosed intentions of issuing just $142 billion between April and June. Keep in mind almost two thirds of this period has passed, which means that somehow the Treasury has to not only stop but in fact reverse its net issuance. We are not sure how this will actually happen.

To see two very interesting graphics, go to the article from which this quote was obtained: Treasury Prepares To Plunder Another $45 Billion From Retirement Funds As It Issues $110 Billion More Debt Next Week.

It should be noted that the debt ceiling is not the problem. Raising it, solves the duplicity of Treasury behavior but doesn’t resolve the fact that we are caught in a debt death spiral that will result in the collapse of the dollar, producing hyperinflation and the likely collapse of our government.

 

The article below focuses on “the biggest flim-flam in the nation’s history.” Now that’s saying a lot, however in terms of the magnitude of dollars, it may well be. No, it’s not Bernie Madoff or any other private institution.

Mike Whitney refers to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in response to the economic crisis when he applies the term flim-flam. In addition to the points that Mr. Whitney made, I would like to bring out another one, at least more forcefully than he did. It is what I refer to as “back-door” Quantitative Easing.

Many think of QE as direct purchases by the Fed of Treasury securities. Actually, Treasuries are sold via primary dealers. The Fed actually buys directly from the primary dealers so that Wall Street gets a cut from all government financing, even though one defacto arm, the Fed, is funding another, the Treasury. This transaction is, in effect, an intergovernmental transaction (a flim-flam in itself). My concern goes beyond this unnecessary payoff to Wall Street to the definition of QE. There is a great deal of duplicity when measuring QE.

What government claims as QE is convenient but useless. They claim only immediate, direct purchases of Treasuries from primary dealers are QE. But QE is much more than that. I claim that most expansions in the Fed balance sheet represents QE. On this basis, QE is in the neighborhood of $1.9 trillion because Fed assets have increased from $800 billion to about $2.7 trillion. There are at least three ways that “back-door” QE occurs:

  1. Fed purchase of “old” as opposed to newly issued Treasuries. If the Fed purchases newly issued Treasuries from primary dealers, it is considered QE. If the Fed purchases “old” or previously issued Treasuries it does not count as QE. There is no economic difference between the Fed buying old or new Treasuries from primary dealers if in fact the primary dealers use the increased liquidity to buy new Treasuries. The reality is exactly the same as if the Fed purchased the new and the PDs held on to the old. There is one difference – one is counted as QE and the other is not.
  2. Purchasing Toxic Assets from Banks. The Fed has purchased overvalued assets from banks for generally face value. The banks receive cash or credit in exchange. It makes banks more solvent and much more liquid. These banks often then use the liquidity to purchase newly issued Treasuries. Sometimes this can be a condition of the Fed buying the toxic assets. If the Fed were to buy the newly-issued Treasuries and then exchange them for toxic assets in the banking system the underlying economic reality would be the same except in the latter case it would be recognized as QE.
  3. Purchasing of Toxic Assets from Non-Banks. The simplest example might be sovereign wealth funds. Sovereign wealth funds, especially China, were holding a bunch of toxic waste assets that were misrepresented by Wall Street. They were not happy with the manner in which they were “cheated” by the US. Does anyone think that China did not apply economic leverage on the US to buy back these toxic assets? What better way to do it than to have the Fed buy them back with agreement that the sovereign wealth funds use the proceeds to buy newly issued Treasuries. Just more surreptitious Quantitative Easing which if had been done another way would have been recognized as such.
If you want to know what the Fed is up to, watch their balance sheet, not what they say. Increases in Fed assets mean more money in the economy.
Mr. Whitney touches on some of this in his article which should be read.

By MIKE WHITNEY ~ Counterpunch.com

It’s the biggest flim-flam in the nation’s history. But, thanks to the Congressional Research Service, the scam has been exposed and the public can now get a good look at the type of swindle that passes as monetary policy.

Here’s the scoop: When Fed chairman Ben Bernanke initiated the first round of Quantitative Easing (QE), the stated goal was to revive the flagging housing market by purchasing $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from the country’s biggest banks. The policy was a ripoff from the get-go. No one Continue reading »

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