Monty Pelerin's World

Economic, Financial and Political Analysis

Archives for Other

Gold After The Crash

gold obamaFor those wanting (needing?) to read another analysis of the gold price debacle, here Grant Williams provides a good explanation. There are several reasons which might have prompted this engineered attempt at driving down the gold price. If one of those reasons was to scare the public away from gold as a safe asset and a store of value, it appears to have been a failure. Physical demand, at least among the public, is higher than before the crash.

Jim Wyckoff confirms what many others have reported:

Strong demand for physical gold worldwide, and especially from Asia, continues to underpin the gold market. Reports this week have said there are shortages of gold bars and coins in some countries, with gold retailers jacking up their charged premiums over the spot price of gold.

The public, speaking with their purses, seem to have a better understanding of what is happening than governments expected. That is good for the public, but bad for the criminal class that is trying to dupe them. Mr. Williams provides some amazing pictures of what appears to be a gold buying panic.

For those wanting a comprehensive analysis of the gold industry from both a supply and demand standpoint, here is a good resource.

Will there be other raids against gold? Probably, but future ones are apt to not be as dramatic. Is this a time to be buying gold? Time will tell, but it is about $200 less per ounce than it was a couple of weeks ago.

Because I believe that gold should be a part of every investor’s portfolio, this drop provides those who have none or are underweighted to acquire some at what may appear to be bargain prices down the road. Consult your financial adviser before making any financial decisions.

What To Do With Your Gold

goldcoin5imagesgold3The plummet in gold prices has all gold holders perplexed and less wealthy. In times like these, the weak panic and get out and the strong get in. If this is a manipulated event (and it certainly appears to be so), then the big money will be accumulating gold at these prices.

That’s fine if you have oodles of money. But what’s the little guy to do, assuming he hasn’t already disappeared and is cowering in a corner somewhere? Peter Souleles provides his answer below:

I would therefore not even consider selling gold until…until….

1.    Until someone can explain to you where all the big green boxes of silver eagles you could find on  ebay have gone.
2.    Until someone can explain why you are confronted by overpriced and limited stock offerings when you type in gold bullion (newly listed).
3.    Until the FED allows Ron Paul to head and appoint an audit team that will verify exactly what physical gold the US holds on behalf of its people as well as foreign nations.
4.    Until the FED actually sells its gold to prove that it is a barbarous relic without any intrinsic value
5.    Until China actually announces what its gold holdings are.
6.    Until China, Russia and other central banks stop buying gold.
7.    Until someone can tell us all where Libya’s gold is following the overthrow of Gaddafi.
8.    Until someone can explain why literally every coin shop and bullion dealer has been confronted by far more buyers than sellers.
9.    Until the USA stops raising its debt limit.
10.    Until the FED raises interest rates to a level that equals the REAL inflation rate plus 2%.
11.    Until the governments of the world can unanimously guarantee that there will be no further culling of bank accounts as happened in Cyprus and that suchbehaviour is not part of a new template for “saving” our economies.
12.    Until governments such as Canada withdraw proposed legislation authorisingbank deposit haircuts in future.
13.    Until the FDIC and its equivalent in other nations no longer find it necessary to guarantee deposits (even in limited fashion). After all, Cypriot bank accounts up to 100,000 euros are guaranteed but still remain inaccessible for total withdrawal so what kind of a guarantee is that?
14.    Until new gold production outpaces population increases which is in stark contrast to worldwide behaviour by Central Banks printing money.
15.    Until gold ore grades rise dramatically or production costs fall dramatically
16.    Until food recipients (currently at 47,791,966) fall to pre GFC levels of just over 26 million in 2007.
17.    Until they can explain how the stock market continues to climb in the face of so many deteriorating indicators.
18.    Until they jail Corzine, the bankers who launder drug money, and the bankers who manipulated LIBOR amongst others.
19.    Until they put an end to fractional reserve banking and limit banks from leveraging to obscene levels.
20.    Until women stop wanting gold jewellery
21.    Until you believe that governments will not eventually in some mannernationalise your 401k’s and IRA’s.
22.    Until sales of paper gold and silver cease to take place.
23.    Until the people of India start selling their gold in bulk. In Sydney Australia I was told by one bullion dealer that Indian people were lining up as if his office was a soup kitchen.
24.    Until the German Government actually gets all of its gold back. Or are they powerful only when it comes to little countries like Cyprus?
25.    Until someone can explain what will happen to South African gold mine economics and production in view of the higher wages negotiated last year and the plummeting prices of precious metals.

Bond Funds Have Risk

Bonds and bond funds are not without risk.

There is default risk which is the risk associated with the bond issuer not honoring his obligation(s). In the event of a default, the bondholder will not receive what he contracted for. He may lose all future interest payments and the principal. Or, as in some bankruptcies, bondholders are said to “take a haircut” which means their bonds are retired but at a lesser amount than the face value of the bond. Default risk is usually issuer-specific. That is, if Company A gets into financial difficulty it does not necessarily follow that Company B will also. In extreme downturns, however, many companies are harmed thus increasing default risk for all.

There is interest-rate risk. Movements of general interest rates affects all interest rates. If the Fed, for example, changes monetary policy which raises or lowers interest rates all bond prices will be affected. Bond prices move inversely to interest rates — if interest rates rise, bond prices fall and the opposite. Interest rate risk is not company specific, it is related to the macro-economy.

This article from the Wall Street Journal deals with interest-rate risk.

Bond funds can do a good job diversifying away default risk. They are unable to diversify away interest-rate risk, however.

One of the ways that bond funds attempt to reduce interest-rate risk is by holding bonds of different maturities. Doing so can reduce interest-rate risk to some degree because the mathematics of bond valuation is such that bond prices of shorter-term maturities move less than prices of longer-term maturities. But they both move in the same direction.

Retired individuals often use what is called a “laddering” strategy. They split their bond holdings by maturity. A common strategy is to hold 10% in bonds maturing in a year, another 10% maturing in two years, etc. etc. out to ten years. Each year 10% of the portfolio matures and is put into bonds that will mature in ten years, maintaining the ladder. The rationale for such a strategy is that if interest rates rise, the value of your portfolio declines but the re-investment will be at a higher rate than the rest of the portfolio. Hence the portfolio drop is cushioned somewhat by the higher interest income from the re-investment.

A final comment: If you hold a bond until its maturity, you will get its face value (generally $1,000) when it matures. By doing so you have effectively nullified interest rate risk.

A Case For Gold

A case for owning gold from GLD, the SPDR gold fund.

Hybrid Annuities

Are you nearing retirement? Are you familiar with hybrid annuities? They may or may not be right for you, but you at least can learn a little about them here.

For those of you who watch this, make sure you explore the option to convert to a pension for life. In the video, the presenter talks about having $600,000 and the option of converting it to a lifetime income of $33,000. Why would anyone do this, if they still had the option of 7% ($42,000) which can only increase over time. Unless there is something else not mentioned, it would be foolish to ever convert. You would always be better not converting plus turning over a minimum of $600,000 to your heirs.

Page 2 of 6:« 1 2 3 4 5 »Last »