By Monty Pelerin, on March 7th, 2010
Mark W. Hendrickson wrote a piece on Keynesian Economics in American Thinker today. It is an excellent read for fans or opponents of Keynes. Even better for those who want to learn, or refresh, some economics.
In the piece he discusses the following four topics:
1) Thralldom to the Keynesian macro-economic paradigm.
2) Blindness to history.
3) An enormous faith in government competence.
4) Dangerous assumptions about the capital markets.
Hendrickson concludes with the following:
“Stimulus plans haven’t worked, won’t work, and we can’t afford them. We are already in great economic danger from deficit spending. A policy to plunge us even deeper into the debt abyss is kamikaze economics.”
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By Monty Pelerin, on February 16th, 2010
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Just another Roubini warning. And just more disbelief (or cheerleading a recovery) by CNBC. It is embarrassing listening to CNBC trying to get Roubini to adhere to their opimistic line.
Roubini is a Keynesian economist who “got things right.” He is flamboyant and self-promoting. While I am not one of his big fans, his past observations have turned out to be mostly correct. I also find little in this interview to disagree with.
Interestingly, he used none of his Keynesian theory or tools to forecast outcomes and earn his reputation. His approach, rather than being tied to Keynesianism, is more eclectic, a form of entrepreneurial forecasting. His focus on debt and trade imbalances and government deficits has served him well. Keynes might not approve, but I do.
Whether his amazing prognosticating run can be encapsulated under any theoretical umbrella is doubtful. Whether it can be continued, may even be more doubtful. Regardless, he has been the one with the hot hand, so far.
Roubini: The Recovery as a House of Cards
This video really highlights how far out of consensus I must be.
It’s been a while since we posted any Nouriel Roubini content here and, as I sat listening to the video below, all I could think was, “that makes sense,” “I’m with you on that point” and “bingo!” Then I hear the clucking from the CNBC hosts – guest or otherwise – about how these theories simply cannot be true. Theories that
Continue reading Roubini as Not Keynes
By Monty Pelerin, on February 7th, 2010 The results of this recent Rasmussen survey support my observation that the more economics courses taken in college the less knowledgeable a person is in the subject. Taken to its extreme, this contention would mean that those with PhD degrees in Economics are the least knowledgeable, which is not always true. There are actually some very fine PhDs in Economics. Unless one is closely associated with the profession in some manner or other, one does not typically hear from or about these people.
All the noise comes from government economists. By necessity, they are all Keynesians. In order to obtain a policy position in governmental economics, you must have a union card. Keynesianism is your union card. The damage Keynesians do in a classroom is itself unfortunate, but it is at least contained. Why do we allow them to ruin entire economies? If Keynesians are allowed to serve in government, they should be like Barney Fife — allowed to carry a gun but not a loaded one.
The Rasmussen poll also provides some bad political data for President Obama. Even amongst Dems, only 21% agree with the Keynesian approach and 47% do not. Overall, 70% of the American public say it would be better to cut the deficit. Once again, “the wisdom of crowds” seems to hold.
Americans Reject Keynesian Economics
“These figures highlight a massive failure of leadership from both Republicans and Democrats among the nation’s political elite,” says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “Given
Continue reading Keynes, Government, The People and Obama
By Monty Pelerin, on January 5th, 2010 “My long view for the US is high inflation which will not show up in the government’s fraudulent statistics, along with a declining standard of living, increasing decay and ultimately leading to chaos, societal and government collapse in the US within a decade or two, maybe sooner.” Craig Harris
The following article will seem extreme to some. The above quote especially will shock many. My view is that this quote is a reasonable estimate of where we are heading. No one can predict the future with precise accuracy. Even if a prediction is correct, estimating the timing is even tougher.
Many, including myself, will argue that the future is not deterministic. Actions and policies can change and alter outcomes. Clearly, that is true. Yet, it is likely that the tipping point for changing policies necessary to avoid Harris’ prediction was past years ago. In that sense, his forecast may be deterministic, i.e., independent of any actions that are subsequently taken.
Future actions can certainly influence the timing, but I believe Harris has covered that possibility with his “within a decade or two, maybe sooner.” My personal guess would be within a decade.
BANKRUPT FASCIST OLIGARCHY WITH A MILITARY MACHINE
Dec 27, 2009
Craig Harris
For a contact email address go to Craig’s website:
http://earthblognews.blogspot.com/
“I would buy every three months some gold and not worry so much about the price because the weight stays
Continue reading Free Markets Don’t End Like This
By Monty Pelerin, on December 24th, 2009 There is not much to add to this post by Steven Horwitz. Obviously, the Keynesians will say that it is too simplistic; that economics is more complex, more “nuanced.” Well, no it isn’t! Only if you are selling snake oil do you have to avoid simplicity and straight-forward questions. Only if you are on the government payroll or aspiring to get there do you have to be afraid of questions like these. Or only if you are a technician, incapable of independent thought and brainwashed by a government-funded economics department should such questions upset you.
Bravo Professor Horwitz.
Five Questions for a Keynesian
posted by Steven Horwitz, Guest Blogger at 10:28 AM on 12/24/09
In the wake of last fall’s financial market chaos and the deepening of the recession, Keynesian economics, largely left for dead by the economics profession for the last 30 years, has made something of a comeback, at least among pundits and politicians, neither of whom have sterling reputations as sophisticated consumers of economics. But they are not the only group clinging to Keynesian fallacies in the current world of endless bailouts and stimulus packages. Many Keynesian fallacies have become part and parcel of the average American’s understanding of how to fight recessions. It seems that, like foxholes and belief in God, a good recession turns everyone into a believer in big government. You may have even talked to some of these people, perhaps at a Thanksgiving dinner or holiday party.
So before you go to
Continue reading Will Keynesians Please Answer?
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Friedrich von Hayek
Friedrich von Hayek founded the Mont Pelerin Society.
“Monty Pelerin” is a pseudonym chosen by this blogger to convey general agreement with the philosophy, goals and spirit of the Mont Pelerin Society. No other connection exists between the blogger and the Society.
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