government bonds, interest rates, low interest rates, 700 year history
My generation, born during or near post World War II, has been quite fortunate. Those of us lucky to have been born in the US during this period hit a sweet spot of both place and history. The economy thrived, standards of living soared and many avoided the numerous wars that dominated the Twentieth Century. […]
Don’t count on the survival of the Euro. It was a Frankenstein-type creation in the first place, forced by the political elites who wanted to expand their power base. That done, the fissures and cracks began almost immediately. Now, we are on the verge of a complete break-down, one that is unavoidable no matter how […]
In the category of things to keep you up at night, consider the sovereign debt requirements in the next several years. According to Chris Puplava: Nearly 50% of the total outstanding debt of the world’s top 10 debtor nations needs to be rolled over by the end of 2015. This amount is staggering! For the […]
Jim Grant opines on the Libor scandal and central bank interest rate manipulations: H/T here and also another link.
For those who think bonds are a safe place to be, you might want to reconsider. In addition to rising sovereign risk (yes, for the US as well as other countries), there is interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is what you assume when you buy a bond and do not intend to hold it […]
This response is from a regular reader sent directly to me. I blocked out his name only because I don’t know whether he wants it to be revealed. I am in complete agreement with what he says. It is precisely this reason that I believe the situation is hopeless. As I have said on other […]
David Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, is quoted by David Panzner: “We are not exempt from a debt crisis,” he said. “We’re never going to default, because we can print money. At the same point in time, we have serious interest rate risk, we have serious currency risk, we have serious inflation risk […]
Chris Martenson on the Investor Problem: Debt Ceiling Dilemma: The Foul Choice Facing Investors Thursday, July 28, 2011, 10:23 am, by cmartenson For the record, I still believe that there will not be a breach of the debt ceiling and no overt default for the US. Things will be worked out in the nick of […]
The following video outlines the debt problem. Unfortunately the interest cost is greatly understated. I believe the presenter makes his calculations based on interest rates holding constant at their current low levels while calculating future interest expense. That will not happen. Interest rates are more normally in the 5% range rather than the near zero […]
The calendar year is not over, but some review of stock market performance may be useful in preparation for the new year. Normally this review would be restricted to Premium Members, but this one is unprotected. This type of inter-temporal momentum tracking will become a regular feature of this website, although future applications of it […]
Suggested stops for the December rankings are provided below. These are mechanical calculations based on ETF volatility. As usual, the first column represents the price at the end of November and the second two columns represent possible stop levels. One is tighter than the other and whether you choose either or set your own is […]
The December rankings and performance of previous rankings are provided below. Suggested stop levels for each of the rankings will be provided in a separate post. December Selections
This update is based on market-close data as of November 22. Performance is based on beginning of that month’s rankings, assuming they were purchased and held for a full month. Stop placement or early selling would produce different results. So, too would different entry or exit prices. There is no way to account for early […]
The ranking of the 11 ETF Asset Classes routinely followed on this site is shown below. These rankings reflect the latest order produced by the algorithm used to rank individual ETFs. There have been some movements in these rankings reflecting recent market action.
Monty Pelerin's World discusses economic, political and financial issues from a free market perspective. All Posts
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