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John Williams on Government Statistics

Read this interview with John Williams of Shadowstats:

James J Puplava CFP with John Williams

Sponsored by: PFS Group

Jim welcomes back John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics. John believes the real unemployment rate is 22%, not 8.1%, which is why it still feels like a recession. He also calculates the CPI at 6%, not 2.8%, and explains how the government manipulates the rate of inflation. Lastly, John believes the US is still on track for hyperinflation in 2014 as we near the coming fiscal cliff.

John received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Formally known as Walter J. Williams, his friends call him John. For nearly 30 years, John has been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.

Hide transcript of John Williams: The Real Unemployment Rate: 22%−Not 8.1%

JIM: Joining me on the program today is John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics.

And John, before we get into a real big issue that’s going to hit the economy January 2013, I want to talk about the front page of your website. And you have two graphs that are available publicly and one is the unemployment rate where you have U3, U6 and then SGS, which is your own. Let’s talk about those numbers, what they mean for our listeners and the differences between them. [1:11]

JOHN: Sure. I’ve been a consulting economist for 30 years. What I’ve found over the decades is that the government’s reporting has moved further and further away from common experience, and really, the average guy has got a pretty good sense

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Up The Creek Without A Paddle

The contrast between what we see in our every day lives is not consistent with what government tells us is happening in the economy. The so-called recovery certainly doesn’t feel like one; it is certainly unlike any of the others over the last 50 or so years. If inflation is not a problem, one can only wonder how government obtains their numbers. Apparently they exclude or weight insignificantly what we must buy every week, like food and gasoline. We are told that the unemployment rate is going down but that is inconsistent with what we see and hear from neighbors. How can that be when labor force participation rates are at recent record lows? How does one reconcile record-setting food stamp payments with a prospering economy?

If these are some of the contradictions you wrestle with, it is likely you believe what government is telling you. That is always dangerous, but especially so now when we approach an almost certain economic apocalypse.

The economic disaster in Europe produced political upheaval in their recent elections. These changes will likely only hasten the implosion of the Eurozone and the Euro and the inevitable economic collapse over there. Similar changes, both politically and economically, lie ahead for America, although likely not quite as soon as Europe.

The US government is responsible for putting this country in jeopardy. For the past fifty years they have attempted to manage the economy with tools that are both inflationary and price distorting. Each downturn in the economy has needed larger interventions to correct. All of these interventions have been done in an attempt to cover up problems caused by prior interventions.

Now the country nears its breaking point. Prior interventions have created such distortions that the economy is no longer functional, at least in a productive fashion. Additional interventions will only compound problems and they are not likely possible because  government is out of resources (fortunately).  Meanwhile the misallocations and distortions in the economy continue to percolate behind the scenes. There can be no recovery until the economy purges itself of these cancers. Yet that is exactly what each government intervention over the last fifty years was designed to prevent.

Government has exhausted its supply of false magic. All that is left is lying. That is why reality does not conform with the data — the data are false. There is nothing else left for government to do but fudge numbers. They have exhausted all other options. Actually, they still have one more option which they may or may not use. That is the “printing money” option that Bernanke has threatened and also withdrawn. When matters truly become desperate, I expect him to use that option.

James Quinn provides a “take-no-prisoners” article dealing with the fantasy of government data and how our decline is at least forty years old. We have had ups and downs along the way, but all have been within a secular decline.

Here is one of Mr. Quinn’s observations on the fraud that Washington attempts to paint as a recovery:

It divulges the extent to which Ben Bernanke and the politicians in Washington DC have gone to paint the U.S. economy with the appearance of recovery while wrecking the lives of senior citizens and judicious savers. Only a banker would bask in the glory of absconding with hundreds of billions from senior citizen savers and handing it over to criminal bankers. Only a government bureaucrat would classify trillions in entitlement transfers siphoned from the paychecks of the 58.4% of working age Americans with a job or borrowed from foreigner countries as personal income to the non-producing recipients. How can taking money from one person or borrowing it from future generations and dispensing it to another person be considered personal income?

Mr. Quinn discusses the deception and changes that occurred in this country over the decades:

Money taken from workers and investors and transferred to the non-working and spenders is NOT INCOME. It is just redistribution from producers to non-producers. The key takeaways from the chart [see his article for chart] are:

  • Working at a job generated two-thirds of personal income in 1970 and barely half today. This explains why only half of Americans pay Federal taxes.
  • One might wonder how we could be in the third year of a supposed economic

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The Effects of Taxes on Economic Well-Being

Empirical tests are difficult in the field of economics. There are many reasons why Austrian economists in particular are reluctant to admit them as evidence for or against a position. Nevertheless, sometimes the data are so compelling that the results cannot be ignored. Certainly the data in the accompanying charts to the right suggest that tax cuts (lower taxes) assist the economy.

The Obama Administration thinks taxes are a means of equalizing outcomes. President Obama stated that he favored a higher capital gains tax even though it would bring in less revenue to the government because it would be “fairer.” Sadly, he seems to place that objective ahead of the economy and jobs. Compare the Reagan recovery with the Obama non-recovery. We are lucky to eke out a phony 2.2 percent growth last quarter. Compared to the reported results in the Reagan recovery this performance is dismal!

Now we have a new study comparing states with high and low income taxes. The results should not be surprising to economists or those trained to think like economists. Faster growth occurs in the no income tax states. If you are a government employee or otherwise a parasite on society, this conclusion is likely not pleasing. If, on the other hand, you are a hard-working citizen concerned with feeding your family, you might greet such information with a shrug saying “it’s common sense.”

Such tests are hardly definitive, but it seems the burden is on the big government types to explain why taxes correlate so well (inversely) with economic well-being.

Here is a snippet from the conclusions:

Every year for the past 40, the states without income taxes had faster output growth (measured on a decadal basis) than the states with the highest income taxes. In 1980, for example, there were 10 zero-income-tax states. Over the decade leading up to 1980, those states grew 32.3 percentage points faster than the 10 states with the highest tax rates. Job growth was also much higher in the zero-tax states. The states with the nine highest income tax rates had no net job growth at all, and seven of those nine managed to lose jobs.

Read the entire article at the Wall Street Journal

GDP: China vs. US

Charles R. Andersen has an interesting comparison on various country GDP measures. The US GDP is approximately 50% larger than China’s. On a per capita basis, the US is almost 7 times larger than China. However, China has already surpassed the US in manufacturing and is 46% larger.

The Fraud of GDP

The time to save is now. When a dog gets a bone, he doesn’t go out and make a down payment on a bigger bone. He buries the one he’s got. Will Rogers

The number one myth that politicans want you to beieve is the following:

1. U.S. GDP Is Growing
U.S. GDP has increased by 4.26% from 2007 to 2010, according to data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the same period of time, the U.S. national debt has increased by 61.6%, according to the U.S. Treasury. Looking at these numbers, you don’t need to be an economist to see that something is very, very wrong.

To see the others, read Barry Ritholtz’ piece.

Contrast the point above with a family whose income has increased by 4% but whose debt has increased by 15 times more. Is this improvement or merely conspicuous consumption? Unless this family used the debt to purchase an investment that has held its value or increased in value, all that has occurred is conspicuous consumption and a substantial drop in the family’s net worth.

In the case of our economy that is primarily what has occurred. In the case of a family, instead of focusing on what they spend (the GDP approach) we focus on their net worth. Are they becoming wealthier or poorer. Why don’t we focus on net worth to measure the state of our economy? Is there any surprise that government encourages you to spend? It may make you worse off but it makes GDP look better.

The fraud is that GDP measures spending, regardless of debt. A country is like a family. It is not better off because it spends more. It is better off when its wealth increases. The proper measure of well-being is Net Worth, which is often negatively related to spending.

Saving is not a sin. It is the accumulation of capital that makes us wealthier than other nations. Our wages are higher only because our workers have more capital (tools and equipment) to work with than other workers have. This capital can only occur from deferring consumption — saving.

Housing In A Nutshell

Hat Tip to Reader NII with my note after the graph:

Short run thinking by politicians permitted mortgage credit to excessively expand. Credit expansion shifts consumption from the future to the present.  The “future” is here.

I don’t think the general public realizes yet that the 20-25 year boom in mortgage lending (low rates, lower lending standards) has resulted in a bust of this magnitude. New housing starts are hovering around 48 year lows and should drift lower for  a while.

 

The relationship between housing recoveries and recessions (shaded blue) is rather consistent over the time period on the chart. In every case, housing turned down prior to a recession and turned up at the end of the recession. Preceding the latest recession, housing dropped dramatically. The recession is called over, but housing continues down. This never happened before.

One can speculate that we are still in a recession despite what the NBER has announced (my opinion) or “this time is different.” Both may be true as I believe we never left the recession and are on our way to a Depression. The government has done its best to hide the underlying reality but are now running out of bullets (fiscal stimulus, but not QE shenanigans). Recent reports adjusted economic performance downward indicating the recession was worse than originally thought. Recent quarterly reports have also weakened, probably signalling that a double-dip will be declared within the next 12 months. Eventually the “D” word will be unavoidable unless hyperinflation breaks out. That will only defer the “D” and make it worse when it finally hits.

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