History is a great teacher. It often provides clues that enable us to understand the present and future. The ancient regime’s concept of divine right of kings seems pertinent to today. According to Wikipedia: The Divine Right of Kings is a political and religious doctrine of royal absolutism. It asserts that a monarch is subject [...]

While one can never be certain about how this economic crisis will play out, most of us have various probabilities of certain events happening and use these to develop forecasts. John Mauldin (see writeup here) recently explained how difficult such forecasts are because of a complex chain of interdependent variables. [...]

Quite a while back, when “green shoots” were all in vogue, I suggested that 2010 was the year when you would start hearing the dreaded “D” word (Depression) being thrown around as a matter of course. The ability to propagandize that things were getting better would crumble in the face [...]

For many years I have believed the US as a people are getting poorer. Two-income families did not arise as a result of the women’s liberation movement. They arose out of necessity. The primary bread-winner’s real earnings were not enough to support the family. Inflation has masked the effects of [...]

“No Recovery?” In the best Claude Rains fashion, “I am shocked, shocked!” There is no economic recovery, and there will be no economic recovery this year and probably not next. Yet the media, mainstream economists and the Administration insist we are in the midst of one. Things are definitely getting [...]

Despite the rising stock market, virtually everything else continues to deteriorate in the economy. An earlier post dealt with this anomaly. There literally is not one thing that can be claimed as a positive. And that includes the phony GDP third quarter “improvement” and presumably a better (preliminary) number for [...]

Below is a graph from the US Treasury Department. It tracks the rolling 12-month growth rates of taxes received. There are two points to be made: Two of the three categories are down 30%; the other is down about 8%. There is no indication that these figures have stopped going [...]

Despite what you hear and read, there can be no recovery until the private sector starts growing, and it has not. The public sector produces no products, gets in the way and generally hinders the private sector from accomplishment. Here is what has happened in the third quarter as reported [...]

Meredith Whitney hits part of the problem precisely: the Fed cannot ease off  purchases of mortgage-backed securities without a collapse of the housing market and the economy. She doesn’t deal with what happens if the Fed continues to support the housing market. This disguised quantitative easing necessary to support the [...]

Image by akseabird via Flickr Image via Wikipedia Apparently things are so good that we are going to make them even better. Are we back in Alice in Wonderland? If this were not so serious, it would be comical. Another stimulus is being discussed. Who possibly could have seen this [...]

One person’s take on the positive GDP figures. CHART OF THE DAY: Cash-For-Clunkers MASSIVELY Distorted GDP Vincent Fernando and Kamelia Angelova|Oct. 29, 2009, 2:13 PM | 172 | Print Tags: Economy, Chart Of The Day If anyone mentions the just-released 3.5% U.S. third quarter GDP growth, just throw this chart [...]