Charles Hugh Smith states: … our financial system is fundamentally based on lies, fraud, embezzlement, misinformation, perverse filters and incentives, shadow systems that mock transparency and regulation, class privilege and [...]
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Ultimately the debate as to whether this crisis ends in a deflationary or inflationary collapse will be decided by the outplay of several forces. While it is impossible to determine which way this drama plays out (it could go either way), there are reasons to believe either position. Ultimately which side one takes depends on whether one believes:
- that economic forces will be allowed to play themselves out or
- that political intervention will occur to attempt to prevent these forces from working.
In a truly free market, the sorry existing state of affairs could never have developed. Massive political interventions enabled matters to get to this advanced state. The political motivation was not to cause a crisis but to prevent prior smaller ones from occurring. The belief that government could eliminate, or at least dampen business cycles, is false. All government accomplished was a cover up of problems, deferring them to a later periods when they resurfaced in bigger and more threatening fashion. After decades of this behavior, it appears we have run out of cover-ups. The problems now are too large to be contained without massive additional interventions.
If you believe that government will refrain from taking action, then you should believe that we will have a deflationary Depression. If you believe they will continue to try and play the game of “extend and pretend,” you must believe there will be high inflation ahead, probably culminating in a hyperinflationary Depression. Both alternatives end in Depression.
It appears naive to believe that suddenly intervention will stop. Indeed, interventionary efforts have only increased as evidenced by the exploding balance sheets of all central banks. And this continuing expansion is at a time when the authorities want you to believe that they are not engaged in quantitative easing.
Does anyone truly believe that politicians will stand by and allow another Great Depression to occur? That is what deflation means in this grossly exaggerated, Alice-in-Wonderland, over-leveraged world. No, in a fiat money system, it is too easy to run the printing presses. To see an explanation of how easy and the mechanics of doing so, see this article ”How Deflationary Forces Will Be Turned into Inflation“ by Thorsten Polleit at Mises.org.
In a fiat money system, inflation is always a political decision. It is not the outcome of proper economic policy. It is the last refuge of political cowards. It will not improve matters. Ultimately it will wipe out the middle class by destroying their savings. Then a Depression will occur, one which the population will be in substantially worse shape entering than the one in the 1930s.
Here is a take from The McAlvany Commentary. Especially relevant is the part where John Williams is interviewed. It begins around the 8:30 minute mark. Note a key point: The government cannot fund its operations. The option is to cut spending drastically or to print money! Which one do you believe is about to happen?
For anyone interested in learning about Money, Banking and Business Cycles, I highly recommend this book. It is massive and an excellent treatment of the subjects from an Austrian perspective. Furthermore, its price is about 1/3 of what I paid. Outstanding bargain and outstanding presentation.
Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles
Only a few 2nd edition copies remain! Get them while they last!
Jesús Huerta de Soto, professor of economics at the Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, has made history with this mammoth and exciting treatise. He integrates sweeping history and rigorous theory to make the good-as-gold case that the institutions of money and banking can be part of the free market — without a central bank, without bailouts, without inflation, without business cycles, and without the economic instability that has characterized the age of government control.

The end point is near. The only thing keeping both Europe and the US afloat is massive money printing by the ECB and the Fed. The world has reached the point where markets are increasingly unwilling to purchase government debt.
Downgrades by S&P of European countries, as usual, are behind the curve of what markets already reflect. Further downgrades will be forthcoming whenever the ratings agencies become too embarrassed to hold at current ratings.
It appears the only ones who still believe money creation will work are governments themselves. They refuse to cut back spending, bringing it into line with tax revenues. Undoubtedly this reluctance has something to do with maintenance of ”the myth of government.” Politicians have convinced constituents that government is the source of prosperity and “entitlements.” They have been so successful that slowing down this spending will produce civil unrest among recipients who believe they have a right to other people’s funds, even when these are not available.
It is doubtful that politicians truly believe the myth they created for the masses. But pols do know what will happen if they cease these payoffs. The masses will target them as enemy numero uno. As hunger sets in, looting and rioting will target anyone with assets. Thus, pols will continue to print money in an effort to “buy off” the masses even thought it will not solve any useful purpose other than their maintaining office for a bit longer.
But such a strategy is both selfish and harmful to the country. Printing money is not some harmless act to be used to fool citizens. It corrodes society and markets with insidious inflation. Inflation sets consumers against producers, as they are blamed for the price increases. It encourages class warfare as the middle class is slowly destroyed while the wealthy are able to prevent or minimize their own loss of purchasing power.
Inflation is not something that can be controlled at some pre-determined level. It is equivalent to setting a fire without the proper resources to contain it. When it breaks out it does so with a fury that cannot be controlled. People quickly take steps to spend money faster to beat the anticipated price increases. This condition is the precursor to hyperinflation which destroys both the economy and society. At this point, “saviors” like Hitler who claim they can solve everyone’s problems, generally arrive. Governments typically do not survive hyperinflations.
The video below, by Chris Ciovacco, explains why we may be nearing the point where control is lost. Pay special attention to the graphic where the money scam is revealed for what it truly is: insolvent central banks injecting money into insolvent banking systems so that insolvent banks can buy the debt of insolvent governments.
The entire system is bankrupt, morally and fiscally and is about to collapse. The taxpayer, whether he knows it or not, is making unknown, hidden “investments” which will come back to haunt him and his heirs for generations.
H/T to Barry Ritholtz for publicizing this. Note the dates in the caption.
The Outrageous Federal ReserveThis article from Unelected.Org should get your blood pressure up. If you have a problem in this area, perhaps you should not read it. Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals [...] |
Central Banks No Longer PretendingBill Bonner’s take on yesterday’s Central Bank action was similar to the one I expressed in the preceding post. Mr. Bonner has an ability with words that few others possess. [...] |
Yesterday’s Stock Market Rally Courtesy of Government PonziYesterday was a big day in the stock market! The Central Banks of the world came to the rescue of Europe, at least that is what you are supposed to believe. [...] |
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What’s Your Trading Horizon?H/T to Zerohedge for this chart showing what happened after the last global coordinated intervention: Share/Save Download article as PDF |
Don’t Invest, Gamble!Phoenix Capital Research has a very negative outlook on the near term. Their outlook is similar to my own (my emphasis added): We have been getting MAJOR warning signs of [...] |
Federal Reserve “Living in Age of Black and White TVs with Rabbit Ears”Jim Grant speaks about money and the Fed: H/T to Zerohedge for this video. Share/Save Download article as PDF |
Maloney Presentation on InvestingA long (90 minute) presentation on gold, silver, the stock market and inflation. A simple explanation that should help people understand what is happening with respect to asset cycles and [...] |








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