Image via Wikipedia Is there any doubt why the major media audience is dropping like a rock? This headline suggests that 96% of the sample believes they are better informed [...]
bias
Dec 262010
One man’s opinion of how we got into this mess. For some additional information on Ferguson, see the H/T reference below.
H/T Naked Capitalism
Economics as taught and practiced these days has been severely removed from its original methodology. It is a social science that has been dominated by physical science methodologies. It suffers from what Friedrich Hayek termed “scientism.”
James M. Buchanan, Nobel Laureate, is ninety years old and one of the great economists of our time. His thoughts on the profession and its inability to respond meaningfully to the the 2008 crisis are worth reading. He is not one tainted by “scientism.” Like Hayek, he understands the limitations of the field and the arrogance of false knowledge.
His piece below is not technical. It is more philosophical, but goes a long ways to demonstrating the problems that result from assuming more knowledge than one is capable of knowing. The hubris (most) of the profession has come back to haunt and humble them.
Emboldening added by me.
Economists Have No Clothes
by James M. Buchanan
Abstract:
Why have economists had so little meaningful to say about the 2008 crises? Where and when did the ‘science’ get off the track? Can anything be done to restore respectability Continue reading »
Jan 072010
December tax results disappoint. This from the Wall Street Examiner:
Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed that a recovery was taking root and would continue to do so. That spells trouble for both bonds and stocks.
In the same article they refer to the NAR’s data on pending home sales as “terrifying.”
I do not trust government numbers, other than tax collections. That includes employment, CPI, GDP, etc. If you want to know what is happening, and long before the government publishes most of its numbers, look at trucking stats, freight-car loadings, shipping, etc. Part of the problem arises from “seasonal adjustments.” When you are in a recession/depression, it is unlikely that normal seasonal adjustments are valid. A bigger problem is the cheerleading that appears to be this Administration’s last hope. When desperation sets in, adjustments in numbers tend to be in the favorable direction.
Folks, this is not getting any better and cannot get any better. As I stated in another post, before 2010 is over the term “Depression” will be in common usage. The list of items mentioned in 2010 Will Be Worse ensures this. The fact that economic policy is harmful rather than helpful is another reason. Whether things get as bad as the Great Depression or not is difficult to determine.
With continued absurd economic policies and new spending programs, it is likely they will.
Nov 052009
- Image via Wikipedia
Good job numbers today — NOT!
Once again we have the headlines and reality diverging. Karl Denninger provides an analysis of why the job situation is worsening rather than the “improvements” that are being heralded.
Thursday, November 5. 2009
Watch The Distortions (UIC Data)
The unemployment claim release looked good. Here’s the headline:
In the week ending Oct. 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 512,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 532,000.
Sounds good, right? So does this:
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 24 was 5,749,000, a decrease of 68,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,817,000.
Now let’s talk truth:
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 480,178 in the week ending Oct. 31, a decrease of 14,216 from the previous week. There were 466,341 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.
The rate of firing is higher than it was this week last year – a really, really bad time, if you remember. This was immediately post-Lehman and AIG, when firms were shedding employees like water off a duck’s back.
So why the disconnect?
States reported 3,459,148 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Oct. 17, an increase of 90,239 from the prior week.
68,000 people came off the rolls and found jobs, right?
Wrong.
90,239 fell off the government‘s “official statistics” and rolled into “extended programs.” That means that net-on-net the picture got worse by 22,239.
It gets even better than this, however, as we are now far enough into the mess that people are rolling off even the extended benefit programs in many states! There is no current tabulation of that count, but any number greater than zero simply adds to the malaise.
The bottom line:
-
Unemployment continues to get worse, not better. The “official” numbers used for the headline don’t count you once you “roll off” the original unemployment program – “extended benefits” and those who have rolled off even the extended programs are not counted as “continuing claims.”
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More people were fired the last week of October this year than were fired the last week of October last year, and last year was directly in the blast zone from Lehman and AIG.
You want to cheer these numbers?
The market might, but Main Street, where most of us live (myself included) has a somewhat different view.
Related articles by Zemanta
- How many people will be on the dole in the USA for the wk ending October 24, 2009? (hubdub.com)
- Wall Street bonuses jump while Main Street pays and stockholders lose (dailyfinance.com)
- New jobless claims rise more than expected (msnbc.msn.com)
- First-Time Jobless Filings Decline (nytimes.com)
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