dollar

 

Jim Willie has been harping on the decline (collapse?) of the dollar. He is usually out front on these matters, often long before others. But pioneer scouts like Mr. Willie are often early and sometimes wrong.

Regarding the fate of the dollar and his timing (imminent), I think he is more correct than most. He writes a newsletter at GoldenJackass.com, so don’t be confused by the “Jackass” terminology as he recalls some of his predictions below and refers to some recent ones:

Remember the Green Shoots of USEconomic recovery in 2009? The Jackass dismissed it as nonsense. Remember the Exit Strategy later in 2009? The Jackass dismissed it as nonsense. Remember 0% was for just six to nine months, an emergency policy? The Jackass dismissed it as nonsense. Remember how Quantitative Easing was to be temporary in 2010? The Jackass dismissed it as nonsense. Remember how the 0% accommodation was to last until 2013, announced early this year? The Jackass dismissed it as nonsense. It is all the stuff of cows and bulls propelled from hind quarters, piling on the meadow in lumpen form. Tragically, the reality is more simple. The 0% rate (ZIRP) and the heavy hand of monetized bond purchase (QE) are permanent or else the system falls apart and collapses. Such an admission would send the USDollar, the Euro, and all major sovereign bonds to the woodshed for processing in a pit filled with excrement, where they will ultimately end up. The tragic fact from the world of economics, is that 0% and bond purchase kills capital, diminishes the economy, puts business asunder, ruins jobs, and causes federal deficits to grow. They are not stimulus, but rather financial formaldehyde.

The above passage can be found in his report here. Other links to recent reports are also available at that site.

Stretch your brain by reading some strong, sometimes outrageous, commentary by Mr. Willie. It may open up new possibilities that you have not considered.

 

The US has dominated trade for nearly a century. That is coming to an end as its manufacturing sector continues to shrink. Yet the dollar continues to be the world currency, providing numerous advantages for the US that other countries resent.

The US is looked at as a declining power, hopelessly in debt. It is able, through the dollar, to export inflation to other countries.

The world views the US as fiscally and monetarily out of control and unwilling to make the proper, hard economic decisions. There is fear that continuance with the dollar risks massive inflation throughout the world and/or a collapse of  the world’s only international currency.

Fortunately for the US, there is no other fiat currency capable of replacing the dollar — at least now.  The Euro was a hope for awhile, but now it is apparent that the Euro will not survive much longer. The motives for finding an alternative to dollars is strong because the risks (and advantages) are so great.

One approach would be to create an international currency consisting of a basket of other currencies and/or commodities. How likely it is that one could be developed is moot. Suffice to say that there is strong motives on the part of many other countries to come up with such an alternative.

An important article on stirrings in the anti-US dollar and perhaps the beginnings to displace the dollar by Chris Blasi is presented below:

Sovereigns Declare War on U.S. Dollar 

BY CHRIS BLASI01/24/2012

Profoundly significant news came out of the Middle East on Monday January 23, 2012. The headline via DEBKAfile* reads:

India to Pay Gold Instead of Dollars for Iranian Oil. Oil and Gold Markets Stunned

Within the body of the report were gleaned these crucial items:

  1. India has become the first buyer of Iranian oil to agree to settle purchases in gold.
  2. China is expected to follow India’s move.
  3. Approximately 40% of Iran’s total oil exports Continue reading »
 

The end point is near. The only thing keeping both Europe and the US afloat is massive money printing by the ECB and the Fed. The world has reached the point where markets are increasingly unwilling to purchase government debt.

Downgrades by S&P of European countries, as usual, are behind the curve of what markets already reflect. Further downgrades will be forthcoming whenever the ratings agencies become too embarrassed to hold at current ratings.

It appears the only ones who still believe money creation will work are governments themselves. They refuse to cut back spending, bringing it into line with tax revenues. Undoubtedly this reluctance has something to do with maintenance of  ”the myth of government.” Politicians have convinced constituents that government is the source of prosperity and “entitlements.” They have been so successful that slowing down this spending will produce civil unrest among recipients who believe they have a right to other people’s funds, even when these are not available.

It is doubtful that politicians truly believe the myth they created for the masses. But pols do know what will happen if they cease these payoffs. The masses will target them as enemy numero uno. As hunger sets in, looting and rioting will target anyone with assets. Thus, pols will continue to print money in an effort to “buy off” the masses even thought it will not solve any useful purpose other than their maintaining office for a bit longer.

But such a strategy is both selfish and harmful to the country. Printing money is not some harmless act to be used to fool citizens. It corrodes society and markets with insidious inflation. Inflation sets consumers against producers, as they are blamed for the price increases. It encourages class warfare as the middle class is slowly destroyed while the wealthy are able to prevent or minimize their own loss of purchasing power.

Inflation is not something that can be controlled at some pre-determined level. It is equivalent to setting a fire without the proper resources to contain it. When it breaks out it does so with a fury that cannot be controlled. People quickly take steps to spend money faster to beat the anticipated price increases. This condition is the precursor to hyperinflation which destroys both the economy and society. At this point, “saviors” like Hitler who claim they can solve everyone’s problems, generally arrive. Governments typically do not survive hyperinflations.

The video below, by Chris Ciovacco, explains why we may be nearing the point where control is lost.  Pay special attention to the graphic where the money scam is revealed for what it truly is: insolvent central banks injecting money into insolvent banking systems so that insolvent banks can buy the debt of insolvent governments. 

The entire system is bankrupt, morally and fiscally and is about to collapse. The taxpayer, whether he knows it or not, is making unknown, hidden “investments” which will come back to haunt him and his heirs for generations.

 

Another forecast worth reading is from Simon Black of SovereignMan.com. His approach deals with what he considers near-certainties in the next or next several years and is presented below.
He presents six of near-certainties. Numbers 1,4 and 6 seem as close to certainty as one gets, especially if you don’t constrain your forecast to a one-year horizon.

The event described in number 2 is beyond prediction because it pretty much involves nature and unusual events. If such an event would occur, I think it depends where in the spiral of decline it occurs as to whether Mr Black’s benign neglect prediction is correct. Any time prior to economic collapse and the Fed will print the money necessary to rebuild Pompei.

The event described in number 3 is ongoing. Fast and Furious started out as an attempt to ratchet up the need for greater gun control. The fervor will rise on the part of the government as Mr. Black predicts, although I think the fervor on the part of citizens owning guns will rise faster and higher. As Thomas Jefferson warned:

Those who hammer their guns into plowshares will plow for those who do not.

Number 5, unfortunately, is likely. Desperation on the part of politicians knows no limits. Even though American wars have drained the Treasury greatly, politicians see war as a way to rally and unite the people. This false notion is apt to be tried once again. In an attempt to save political careers, war is a small price to pay, at least in the eyes of the ruling class.

I am surprised Mr. Black did not deal with inflation or deflation. Perhaps tomorrow’s continuation will include commentary in this area.

Here is Mr. Black’s forecast:

New Year’s predictions are always a fun exercise. We can bet each other over the price of gold on December 31, 2012, or who will win the White House this year, or even make wild, black swan predictions.It’s like the Charades of thought experiments… good for laughs at a cocktail party, but ultimately meaningless. Serious personal and financial plans cannot be developed from mere conjecture– it takes significant research, uncovering little-known facts, reviewing historical examples, and looking for ongoing signs that either reinforce or void hypotheses.I’d like to share a few with you today. In my assessment, these ideas are not so much predictions, but rather mathematical near-certainties that underpin some of my own plans and investments.

Note– the timing for these is loose, not based on some fixed calendar date (Mayan or Gregorian). Some may occur this year, others may not arise for another 3, 4, even 5-years. But with each passing day, the likelihood becomes stronger.

1) Social Security in the US, and public pensions in Western Europe, will be completely restructured.

That which cannot be sustained will not be sustained, and the Continue reading »

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