The days of reasonable economic forecasting are over. Today, an economic forecast is more like the analysis of a criminal mind than the evaluation of economic data. The dominating role of government overpowers markets intentionally. In the short-term that will continue. Reactions to Federal Reserve minutes referencing continuation, alteration or cessation of quantitative easing cause […]
Doug Casey commenting on the past and the future: What we experienced in the 1930s was a deflationary depression where billions of dollars were wiped out with a stock market collapse, bond defaults, and bank failures. Inflationary money that was created since the formation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 was wiped out. Prices went […]
Gary North has an interesting article on the deflation vs. inflation issue. He believes that we will end up in a deflationary Depression, although provides consideration for the possibility of a hyperinflation. In the short and intermediate term, which one of these occurs is critical for investors. Readers know that I expect the inflationary fires rather […]
The coming economic collapse (Depression) is inevitable but the route taken to this ending is uncertain. The road has parallel routes: Deflationary Collapse Hyperinflationary Collapse Which route is taken depends upon government. In our highly regulated and manipulated economy, economics is important but generally takes a back seat to political considerations. As Axel Merk stated […]
Is this the time to acquire gold? Or is this the time to run away from it? Either answer could be correct, depending upon what course government chooses. Government is at a decision point, one that will determine how our economic malaise next turns. It has two choices: Fight deflation by increasing the money supply […]
James Turk believes hyperinflation is ahead. Bob Prechter believes massive deflation is coming. An interesting discussion between the two takes place in this audio. Ultimately, both lead to Depression. Only the route taken differs, but that is important. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVm-aVA-kU8
For those who think bonds are a safe place to be, you might want to reconsider. In addition to rising sovereign risk (yes, for the US as well as other countries), there is interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is what you assume when you buy a bond and do not intend to hold it […]
A heads-up for shoppers is provided by the Fiscal Times list of things that will get cheaper: 12 Things That Will Get Cheaper in 2012. Note that most of these items are electronics and made overseas. Innovation is the primary driver in the expected price decreases. Perhaps a surprising candidate is the price of wine. As […]
Joseph Salerno, an Austrian economist, reveals most of what you need to know about the Federal Reserve, inflation and business cycles. Some interesting quotes or observations are the following: “The Fed is not an inflation fighter; it is an inflation creator.” The Fed causes recessions which are the free market’s means of striking back against […]
Do Not Miss the Audio Below! Ultimately the debate as to whether this crisis ends in a deflationary or inflationary collapse will be decided by the outplay of several forces. While it is impossible to determine which way this drama plays out (it could go either way), there are reasons to believe either position. Ultimately […]
Suggested stops for the December rankings are provided below. These are mechanical calculations based on ETF volatility. As usual, the first column represents the price at the end of November and the second two columns represent possible stop levels. One is tighter than the other and whether you choose either or set your own is […]
The December rankings and performance of previous rankings are provided below. Suggested stop levels for each of the rankings will be provided in a separate post. December Selections
This update is based on market-close data as of November 22. Performance is based on beginning of that month’s rankings, assuming they were purchased and held for a full month. Stop placement or early selling would produce different results. So, too would different entry or exit prices. There is no way to account for early […]
The ranking of the 11 ETF Asset Classes routinely followed on this site is shown below. These rankings reflect the latest order produced by the algorithm used to rank individual ETFs. There have been some movements in these rankings reflecting recent market action.
The updated performance through November 13 is presented below. Additionally, the new rankings as of this same date are provided. Performance is based on the rankings as of November 1. The assumption is that you bought and held equal dollar amounts within a category and that you still hold these ETFs. If you entered at […]
Monty Pelerin's World discusses economic, political and financial issues from a free market perspective. All Posts
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