Does this look like inflation? Wheat prices are up 54% since June Corn prices are up 26% since June Soybean prices are up 13% since June Cotton prices are up 20% since June Coffee prices are up 36% since June Sugar prices are up 38% since June Copper prices are [...]

The inflation-deflation debate continues. James Quinn, however, questions how real deflation is. WHERE’S THE DEFLATION BENNIE? The data doesn’t format well when I copy it from the BLS website. Here is a link to the PDF version: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf The government keeps telling you about the dangers of deflation. The July [...]

A very interesting post from Matterhorn Asset Management. The bracketed insert, I assume, comes from Tyler Durden of Zerohedge from where I obtained the post. The graphs in my previous post might be useful in this article. MONDAY, AUGUST 16, 2010 The Worst Case Scenario by Egon von Greyerz – [...]

I have always been an admirer of the work of John Williams of shadowstat.com. He has been ahead of the curve consistently in terms of what was going to happen. His statistical analysis is first-rate and has exposed a lot of tomfoolery in government-issued numbers. When he speaks, it is [...]

A guest post in the “An American Future” series from Kevin: An American Future: The Shrinking Economy By Kevin at 20smoney.com As we continue a look at America’s future, we turn to the American economy.  What I’m proposing here is that the American economy has peaked in real terms.  For the [...]

More on the inflation-deflation conundrum from The Daily Reckoning: Soft-Core Deflationism by Bill Bonner There are two major schools of thought on what is coming next…and two renegade, home-schools too. There are those who believe we have a recovery…though weak…that will continue and eventually bring the economy back to health. This [...]

Another in a series of posts dealing with whether we have inflation or deflation as this economic crisis plays out. I am in the inflation camp, but plenty of people that I respect are in the deflation camp. The article below by Rocky Vega deals with the potential that is [...]

John Mauldin is one of the more incisive analysts around. He is a thinker focused on long-term trends and their implications for investment policy. He is one of my favorite reads. This week’s piece is probably his best in a long time. It is entitled The Debt Supercycle and deals [...]

As you know, the battle between those expecting inflation and those expecting deflation goes on as our economy shows signs of both. For those who believe inflation will eventually win out (and I am in this camp) or that the U.S. dollar will continue to deteriorate in value (ditto here [...]

Ludwig von Mises predicted that every expansionary boom would collapse. Either the currency would be destroyed or the expansion would stop plunging the country into a Depression. His first option, the destruction of the currency would be accompanied by high inflation (possibly hyperinflation) and then Depression. The end result in [...]

For those of who believe an economic apocalypse is unavoidable, there is disagreement as to what the end looks like. Some very bright people disagree whether the end is the hell of hyperinflation or death by freezing in the depths of deflation. To understand this issue better, two points are [...]

An article by Michael Pento describes the Fed’s predicament rather well. Because of the continued slowing in the economy (what recover?), he believes the next Fed move will be to ease even more: The next ease from the Fed will most likely be in the form of ceasing to pay [...]

As many of you are aware, getting the inflation-deflation argument correct is probably the most important element in protecting yourself and your family as we go through the next decade. An article by Chris Pavese entitled Inflation and Monetary Regimes may be helpful in that regard. It appeared on Zerohedge [...]

Last week I wrote about the US economy ending up in a Depression. Karl Denninger has a hard-hitting piece about our economic future that reaches a similar conclusion. He believes that our economy could contract as much as 40%. While that might be difficult to accept, his points are well taken. [...]

Quite a while back, when “green shoots” were all in vogue, I suggested that 2010 was the year when you would start hearing the dreaded “D” word (Depression) being thrown around as a matter of course. The ability to propagandize that things were getting better would crumble in the face [...]

As the economic crisis approaches the two-year point, it is apparent that “this time is different.”  Few analysts believe that we are going to recover from this Great Recession in a fashion that resembles prior recoveries. Most argue about how long it might run (Japan’s recovery is now two decades [...]

In an article in Atlantic Monthly entitled My Inflation Nightmare, Michael Kinsley worries about the future of the economy. He fears that inflation, perhaps hyperinflation, is a likely next stage in the economic crisis. His fears contradict respected liberal economists, Paul Krugman and Larry Summers. They argue that deflation is [...]

The Fantasy World as Seen by The Federal Reserve and The Washington Post Is our populace considered so ignorant that they can be told anything? Or, is it possible that our leaders are so dumb as to not recognize reality? Neither hypothesis (and they are not mutually exclusive) is flattering [...]

A reasoned view for high inflation is made on Zerohedge. My opinion is that hyperdeflation (if it is defined as 5% or more) does not occur. The level of inflation could be hyper, however. I agree that “Monetisation is now the policy lever of first resort” and that governments will default on [...]

These three articles are must reading for anyone interested in the future of the economy.  No investor or citizen should be ignorant of the possibilities raised in these articles. Ponzi Scheme by Puru Saxena Editor, Money Matters Let’s face it, the government-bond market in the West is a gigantic Ponzi [...]

For investors, the critical question is are we headed toward Inflation or Deflation. How you answer this question and prepare for what you believe is coming, will be the single most important factor in your investment outcomes over the next five or so years. There are plenty of smart people [...]

Prices do not all move in the same direction or at the same time. That is pointed out in the quote below: “Investors who believe we are living in a deflationary period should ask themselves a simple question: why are grocery prices and gas prices and hairdressing prices and insurance [...]

“We’ve heard nothing but convincing rhetoric on the debt for a decade, so what we’re lacking is more of the same?  Does the White House read the current polling and focus-group data?  Deficit anger among voters has grown from ‘palpable’ to ‘seething’ in the last 24 months, yet fancy elocution [...]

Image via Wikipedia Image via Wikipedia Below is today’s press release from the Fed. I have emboldened a couple of key statements. “With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.” [...]