On January 8 of this year I posted my annual prediction article for this year – 2012 – The Year of Living Dangerously. Now it’s time to assess my complete and utter cluelessness when it comes to predicting things within a given time frame. Despite the fact that myself and everyone else acting like they know what lays ahead are proven wrong time and time again, we continue to make predictions about the future. It makes us feel like we have some control, when we don’t. The world is too complex, too big, too corrupt, too lost in theories and delusions, and too dependent upon too many leaders with too few brains to be able to predict what will happen next. This is the time of year when all the “experts” will be making their 2013 predictions. I haven’t seen too many of these experts going back and honestly assessing their 2012 predictions, which didn’t happen.
What I’ve learned is that “experts” usually have an agenda. Their predictions are designed to convince you to buy the stocks they recommend or purchase their newsletter. Many of these “experts” work for Wall Street, the corporate MSM, a political party or corporate interest. Half of the “experts” represent the status quo and want the masses to think everything is just fine and will steadily improve. The other half are fear mongers that want to scare you into buying their products with predictions of impending collapse at any moment. I like to read the predictions of a wide variety of pundits, bloggers, and so called journalists, while understanding they probably have an agenda.
I have nothing to sell. Nor, to the best of my knowledge does Jim Quinn. Yet both of us try to provide insight regarding the future. While our forecasts might be considered unbiased in the sense the we are not trying to sell something to you, that doesn’t make it any easier to be correct.
As Mr Quinn says in an attempt to excuse his incorrectness:
It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt, government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda, government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic system.
I have used similar excuses to explain why my forecasts have not occurred. My excuses have been cast in terms of what appears to be a natural tendency to underestimate the time it takes for institutions to die. Logic consistently misses most of the countervailing forces of survival that institutions employ.
Faced with death, both animals and institutions will do whatever they can to survive. Governments at all levels are in this position. Government is fighting for its life, using whatever tricks and methods it can employ. As matters become more desperate, so too will their tactics. Wounded animals are not restricted by rules or laws. Neither are those who make the rules and laws.