This post is from two years ago (September 29, 2010). It represents my view of Obama then and what would happen in the mid-term elections (then about 5 weeks away). In the last two years Obama’s record has only become more dismal and his character flaws and ethics have been revealed. Virtually everything he has touched has been a failure (although he claims successes, still believing his words are more important than our eyes or the actual data).
Two years later we are again about five weeks away from an election. The media and the pollsters would have you believe that Obama has a lock on being re-elected. The public knew much less about Obama then than they do now. It is incredible to me that pollsters are publishing (with a straight and serious face) the numbers they are. Look for these pollsters to move toward reality as the election nears, not because they will have a clearer vision but because they will eventually be judged in terms of their accuracy during the few weeks preceding the election (especially their last polls). These last polls are their samples for future business. They will change because they value future business more than Obama’s re-election.
There may be a closure effect in the media as well, although it will be less easy to spot. The media publishes qualitative rather than quantitative substance, which somewhat protects them from the clear-cut conclusions that can be drawn against quantitative data. Many media people seem immune to shame and unconcerned about their reputations. The alternative hypothesis of stupidity is also a possibility. Living in their own world, their errors are reinforced by fellow thinkers.
Nevertheless, some members of the media will realize what is coming and abandon their positions rather than go down with the Obama ship. Watch them in the last two weeks preceding the election to see the hedging and perhaps a Road to Damascus conversion or two.
Regardless of how the pollsters and media react, I have no basis to change what was written two years ago. If anything, matters have gotten worse for the Democrats and Obama. Obama’s “magic” is gone. Those who were infatuated by him four years ago are disappointed, disillusioned and possibly angry. Many of them will not vote for him again.
Blacks are disillusioned as their “Great Black Hope” has made their lives more, not less, miserable. They will turn out in smaller numbers this time. College students who came out in droves to vote for the rock star are now jobless, living at home with their parents. They too will turn out in smaller numbers and some who turn out will switch sides. The same can be said about most other identifiable groups.
I cannot think of one sub-group that Obama might benefit from. Perhaps his support from Hispanics will increase, but I am unsure about that. Whether they do or not, it is difficult to imagine Obama doing anywhere close to what he achieved in 2008. As I have written elsewhere, his biggest advantage of 2008 — people did not know him and could imagine him to be whatever they were looking for — is gone. Now his biggest liability is that too many people know him!
Romney is not the best candidate in this American Idol World of politics. Competency and success seem not to be honored by the electorate. Nevertheless, the bulk of Americans are looking to dump the current albatross and many others need only the slightest excuse to do so. If Romney does not blow it in the debates, I think 2010 will be another huge surprise and embarrassment for Dems and their public relations specialists (otherwise known as the media and most pollsters).
Here is the article from two years ago (untouched):
The abject failure of the Obama Administration is painfully obvious. Herman Cain described the situation:
Millions of voters have come to realize that this presidency lacks leadership, direction, decisiveness, economic urgency and, most of all, solutions. This combination of deficiencies has produced a more than uninspired citizenry, except for the most loyal and misled supporters of the president.
While many recognize the failure, few are aware of the potential dangers ahead.
The White House billed this summer as “the summer of recovery.” To those who believed, this promise turned out to be a cruel joke. The phrase rapidly took its place amongst other memorable political gaffes like “Read my lips …,” “Whip Inflation Now” and “Economic Malaise.”*
Despite the obvious, the President travels the land proclaiming economic successes. Mr. Obama is either oblivious or believes he is unaccountable for what he says. The “white lies” of politics provide wide boundaries for the truth, yet he is well outside them.
Mr. Obama’s narcissism and self-proclaimed (and self-believed) messiah image drive his behavior. Unfortunately, the magic is gone. Mr. Obama is now perceived as the Emperor sans clothes. The public no longer sees Moses, but Elmer Gantry. Elmer Gantry knew what he was about. Obama seems to still believe he is Moses and therein lies the danger.
The recent CNBC town hall provided evidence that Moses was no longer. Attendees were carefully screened. Most voted for Mr. Obama. The President played his role, but the cherry-picked audience did not buy it. The dissatisfaction and disillusionment was palpable. The defining moment was provided by Ms. Velma Hart:
I’m a mother. I’m a wife. I’m an American veteran, and I’m one of your middle-class Americans. And quite frankly I’m exhausted. I’m exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the mantle of change that I voted for, and deeply disappointed with where we are.
Softball-tossing John Harwell was unable to provide enough fat pitches for Mr. Obama to overcome the chagrin-drenched room. Only one person appeared to not understand what was happening. That person was the President. Even TOTUS, his teleprompter, had to know.
This is no recovery summer for the economy. Nor is there respite for the American people from the incessant preaching and onerous legislation coming from Washington. The White House economic team knows what is happening and they are bailing out.
Non-economic officials will be leaving. The signs of the coming political and economic debacle are too obvious to miss. The population of rats on ships destined to sink always decreases. Rats instinctively know when it is time to leave. They are survivors.
Even the dim bulb, “Baghdad Bob” seems ready to go. His Iraqi namesake shamelessly spun or dissembled almost up until the time US soldiers entered the TV studio. In similar fashion, Mr. Gibbs’ loyalty did not crack until recently. As expressed in an article by Kurt Brouwer:
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs made a rather startling statement in a press briefing on September 21st. He acknowledged that the economy is bad and he further stated under questioning that the recovery would take several years.
A few things should be noted:
- Our crackerjack media has mostly ignored the inconvenience of Mr. Gibbs’ admission. Their complicity with this incompetent group of Marxists is deplorable.
- The economic mess could take decades to resolve.
- Through the entire charade the President appears unaffected. He continues to pompously spout obvious untruths and exaggerations. Believing (correctly so far) that he owns the press, he has no fear of being called out.
Enter reality. Political opponents are angry. Supporters are disappointed and rebellious. Democrats are scared. They don’t campaign on their or Obama’s so-called accomplishments. Their political ads noticeably omit any party affiliation.
The country is energized for the coming election which is likely to be epic. After the election is when danger could occur.
The President is toxic. His poll numbers are dismal. Democrats are running from him. In a recent piece it was joked that if a Democrat running for election had to appear in public with either Michael Vick or President Obama, he would choose Mr. Vick. That is more probable since Mr. Vick’s considerable football skills appear to have returned.
This election will be the political equivalent of shock and awe. Media and Democrats will be confused and disorganized. Reports concerning the survivability of the party will follow. Republicans will not be spared as long-overdue reform is imposed. The unprincipled media, sensing the mood of the country, will no longer be able to shill for the Democrat Party if they want to survive.
Serious danger will arise inside the Democrat Party. President Obama will be at the center of the storm. He is a newcomer, still viewed as an outsider. Obama was never personally popular among his peers; he was tolerated. To the extent that he could advance the agendas of those in power, he had value. Now his oratory and popularity no longer sell and he will be held responsible for galvanizing the public against the criminal enterprise we so politely call Congress.
Obama is a liability. His aggressive agenda jeopardized the establishment. Presidents come and go but the old bulls of Congress die in office. It is they who own and run Washington, not some figurehead president. Obama’s magic is gone. It duped the Party just as it did much of the country. This wunderkind is viewed as a pompous, dangerous fool by both sides of the aisle. He embarrassed the real power in Washington and threatened the political version of their Cosa Nostra.
Political power is respected, even when it is disliked. Obama came into office displaying contempt for Congress. He established his own advisory group of czars. Congress was to be tolerated, but little more. Much of what was done was in violation of the Constitution. In a Congress where principles don’t matter, advancing the ball is all that mattered.
Political alienation is never pretty. In this case, it could be tragic. We have a President with a Messiah complex, blinded by extreme narcissism. He has lived in an unreal bubble all his life, supported by shadowy figures who viewed him as a meal ticket for ideological change. Most of his life has been outside the realm of discipline and reality.
Mr. Obama has never experienced real failure or unpopularity. How will this abnormal, pampered man-child react to what may be total rejection? That is the problem. The President is likely a sociopath, The nation and his personal tragedy are inextricably linked. So is the Democrat Party. How this drama plays out could have serious ramifications for the entire world.
Mr. Obama is unlikely to be able to handle what is coming. His two-year record contains too many examples of pettiness and “it’s-never-my-fault” behavior. Whether he behaves as a spoiled brat and strikes out at some country (say Iran) to demonstrate his manhood is unknowable. Perhaps he will surprise and accept the fact that he has replaced Jimmy Carter as our worst President, although that is unlikely.
An intervention is inevitable. An intervention might be from trusted friends or it could be a Nixonian pre-resignation meeting. The Democrat Party likely will intervene. They will do so out of self-interest rather than concern for the tragedy we call Mr. President. This meeting is likely to be the Nixonian type.
The initial reaction is predictable. The President and his Chicago thugs will resist. These are tough guys, but from a small pond. The amateurs from Chicago don’t stand a chance against the Washington pros. This is street-crime versus organized crime.
Once this match is determined, the next one becomes the important one. It is the title match, featuring We the People in one corner versus the Congressional thugs in the other. This is a battle to return government to the cage from which it escaped. This one must not be lost!
This post originally appeared on American Thinker