There are many ways to look at Obama’s re-election probabilities. This particular one relates the betting odds on InTrade to the stock market. There is a correlation as seen below. This relationship, if believed by the White House, provides just another reason to expect more QE from the Federal Reserve.
Obama’s re-election odds have wavered after a string of poor jobs reports, with many polls putting the president within the margin of error for a win this November.
But for Obama and Romney supporters, the best insight may be how the markets are performing come fall.
We present a chart we’ve seen many times before (updated through Friday’s close): Obama’s re-election odds (as calculated by InTrade) against the S&P 500.
The two are somewhat correlated — showing an R-squared of 0.62 — and stock market historian Sam Stovall says that equities predict the winner of the presidential ballot with 88 percent accuracy.