Regular readers know my views regarding the supposed economic recovery that we are in. Doug Ross explains this economic recovery (with help from James Pethokoukis). The title, “Obama’s Third Annual Summer of Recovery,” is priceless:
Yesterday, April 27th 8:13pm
The Obama “recovery” is just as ephemeral as the media’s coverage of Operation Fast and Furious. Which is to say: it sucks.Here are the critical numbers that you won’t see covered in legacy media.
• Strategas Research believes corporate profits may have declined on a quarterly basis for the first time since 2008.
• The U.S. economy grew at an anemic 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter.
• Citigroup and IHS Global believe that the first quarter may represent the best growth we see all year. In other words, that economic growth will dip below 2% for the remainder of 2012.
• The Federal Reserve that since 1947, if sub-2% growth occurs in two consecutive quarters, there is a 50 percent change of an immediate recession.
• This is the 11th quarter of the Obama “Recovery”, during which time the economy has only grown a total of 7 percent. Conversely, during the first 11 quarters of the Reagan Recovery, the economy grew 18%.
• The Obama administration’s forecasting skills leave much to be desired. Since 2009, the White House has consistently overestimated its ability at central-planning of the economy:
• In 2009 and even after its $800 billion “stimulus”, Obama predicted that GDP would grow 4.3% in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
• In 2010 the White House said the economy would grow by 3.5% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2013.
• In 2011 it forecast 4.0% growth in 2012 and 4.5% in 2013.
• The good news? According to the forecasting model developed by Yale University’s Ray Fair, if forecasters are accurate about a continued slowing of the economy, Obama would win only 48.4% of the vote. And that, my friends, would be a crushing loss for America’s worst president.