Austan Goolsbee
More information on the recovery that is no recovery at all. Austan Goolsbee, former economic advisor to President Obama and now back in academe, blows smoke regarding jobs. Any present or former political minion has to lie about the state of the economy. The state of the economy is awful and likely to get much worse.
As a graduate of the University of Chicago Business School, I am embarrassed by this political hack’s pronouncements. As bad as he seems, on a relative basis he appears “intelligent” compared to Romer and Bernanke.
This post from Financial Armageddon:
The spin/delusion/lie (take your pick):
“US Not in ‘Jobless Recovery’: White House’s Goolsbee” (CNBC)
The United States is not in a jobless recovery, and the private sector is creating jobs in a broad-based way that augurs well for a sustained recovery, White House economic advisor Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday.
While drags on the economy continue, including higher fuel prices, a housing sector “in the dumps” and state and local government spending cuts, positive signs on the U.S. economy are beginning to outweigh negative ones, Goolsbee said in a speech in Chicago.
The reality:
“Chart of the Day: Has Hiring Really Recovered?” (The Atlantic)
You’ve probably read recently that businesses have begun hiring again. That isn’t quite right: firms had been hiring throughout the recession. Unfortunately, their firings outnumbered their hires so unemployment climbed. Their hiring did slow down, however, a lot. In 2006, over 5 million workers were hired per month, on average. In 2009, that number shrunk to average less than 3.5 million. But the labor market recovery began in 2010. How does the picture look now?
Here’s the chart for private sector hiring updated through March, based on a report released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
As you can see, hiring isn’t exactly flourishing just yet. In March, new hires rose to 3.78 million. That happens to be the most since December 2008, but this isn’t saying much. As mentioned, in 2006, when the economy was humming, 5 million hires per month was normal. And that wasn’t a recovery, just normal business. In a recovery, you would expect hiring to be even more aggressive than usual.
How weak is hiring following the latest recession? Let’s compare it to the one in 2002/2003. You can see hiring for that period above as well. At no point did it fall below 4 million, and it quickly began to rise back to levels above 4.5 million when unemployment peaked at 6.3% in mid-2003. This time around, unemployment peaked in late-2009, but hiring has barely ticked up since.
Instead of “blessing us” with his insights on the economy, perhaps it would be better for all concerned if Mr. Goolsbee stuck to standup comedy…?
