Some pertinent investment observations from reader EBW:
The most interesting feature of the market is that investors are getting hurt by their negative alpha; they are getting whipsawed.
While the averages are flattish, we are witnessing wild rotational and sometimes speculative swings (especially of a metals and commodity kind).
Hedge funds, the dominant investor, seem to be getting “chase-y” as they search for performance.
This setting of hot money is increasingly difficult for anyone but the most facile trader to navigate. And the movement in the price of silver over the last two weeks shows the potential risks to chasing and could possibly be a shot across the bow toward broader weakness in the market.
Ironically, at the same time the hot money is moving throughout the speculative landscape, defensive stocks (staples, drugs and utilities) are growing in popularity. This suggests to me that the longer-term investor is getting more worried.
Meanwhile volume is low, which is indicative of a lack of long-term commitment.
Some of the above observations (and others) are concerns of Barry Ritholtz who remains fully invested but worried.
I disagree with two of the author’s comments.
First: Low volume suggests that “buy and hold” rather than trading with rapid turnover is the dominant theme.
Second: Since, at least until this week’s crack in silver, the market was in a strong uptrend beginning September 1, 2010. The “easy” way to make money, hedge fund or otherwise, was by trend following. A good example is provided by a simple rotational model portfolio of randomly selected stocks gaining 34.5 % from October 15 last year to the end of April. Even allowing for this week’s bad performance the model is still up 27+%.