Russell Caution on Markets

We are reaching a dangerous point in markets. The Fed is coming near the end of QE2. There is little doubt in my mind that QE3 will follow, although there is no reason for the Fed to signal that. The risk comes when the Fed announces that QE2 will be the end of Quantitative Easing. Richard Russell speculates on how this will play out:

The critical question facing the market and the nation is — what will happen when the Fed halts its monetizing machinations at the end of June? Some believe that the Fed will (out of fear) immediately move into QE3. My own guess is that after June 30, the Fed will wait a bit, just to see how the markets are reacting to the end of quantitative easing.

Russell believes (correctly in my opinion) that such an announcement would be, at least short-term, harmful to your wealth:

And I wonder, is the market set up to cross up the dollar bears? If the Fed halts its dollar printing activities, we might see a sudden dollar rally. A rally that would catch the dollar shorts by surprise.

In that case, if the dollar were to rally, we’d probably see pressure on the precious metals.

The stock market would also likely be clobbered.

Investors and speculators should read this article.

In my opinion, the caution should be taken seriously. What makes this conjunction of Fed policy and investing in precious metals, anti-dollar assets or other inflation hedges so important is that it probably produces short-term pain for all asset classes. Long-term, it seems to me that an anti-inflation strategy is still the best one if for no other reason than the virtual truth highlighted by Friedrich Hayek:

With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people.