The economic recovery theme was never anything more than hope promoted by a desperate government trying to survive. There is no recovery and it is doubtful the government, at least the bulk of the political class, will survive the next election or two. Hopefully our form of government survives.
If there were a basis to the theme, it was the flimsy one that because all recessions eventually end, so will this one. That rationale is as correct as the old medical saying that “all bleeding eventually stops.” No cure has to be administered for either event to eventually stop.
Two articles follow which cast doubt on any economic recovery being in the offing. The first, by Bill Bonner, questions the validity of the numbers promoted by the government. The second, by Michael Panzer, provides a smattering of other articles that support the “what recovery” camp.
No Hope for a Consumer-Driven Economic Recovery
by Bill Bonner
The Great Correction intensifies…
The Dow rose on Friday. The dollar fell. Gold is back over $1,400. And the euro – the world’s most despised currency – is back over $1.40.
A chart circulates, supposedly proving that GDP is now back to where it was in ’07, after falling only 4% in the downturn.
We don’t believe it; they’ve juked and jived the figures.
None of the key components of US GDP have recovered. Housing starts, for example, are running at a million less than they were before the crisis began. Employment is back to the levels it was at 10 years ago – with 7 million fewer jobs than in 2007! Retail sales are going up – but they are still not at the level they were in ’06 or ’07.
So how could the overall economy recover, while the most important parts of it do not?
The real answer: the economy hasn’t recovered. And the Great Correction hasn’t gone away. Instead, the correction is like a hurricane sitting just off the coast. It took a swipe at land, and now, it’s back out at sea; its winds are picking up speed. It’s getting larger…stronger… It’s intensifying.
Why?
As we’ve said too many times, none of the problems that led to the crisis of ’07-’09 were corrected. Instead, they were twisted into awful new shapes. They’re still there – swirling around, worse than ever.
Approximately 73% of the economy comes from consumer shopping. So, in order for the economy to grow, consumers have to be able to shop, right? But how can they?
Properly adjusted for inflation, the average wage is lower today than it was in 1973. That’s right, almost 40 years of going nowhere.
Well, hold on…we know what you’re thinking: “What are you talking about? There were some great years for the US economy between ’73 and ’07.”
And you’re right. But they didn’t come from solid, real growth in consumer purchasing power. Instead, they came from two sources:
First, consumers borrowed more. Total debt went from about 150% of GDP to over 370%. The financial industry went wild, sending our credit cards to dogs and dead people…lending money to people without jobs or income…writing mortgage contracts with built-in fuses.
This was not healthy growth. It was not sustainable. It just took “growth” from the future and moved it forward. Want to know why the housing industry builds so few houses today? Easy. It already built today’s houses yesterday. Why is a credit-fueled boom not sustainable? It’s because credit markets go up and down, just like all other markets. When credit is cheaper, people borrow more and buy more. When credit becomes more expensive, they have to pay down their loans and stop buying so much.
Second, during the period ’74 to ’07 more people worked longer hours. The whole family went to work; not just the head of the household. And they worked more hours. This was proclaimed as a great era for women. They went to college. They got jobs. And they had families too. Now, they no longer supplement their husband’s salary. They’ve become equal partners in the household…often, senior partners. The lucky ladies; they get to work two jobs now – one at the office and another one at home!
Up until 2007, the feds could counteract every attempted correction by making more credit available at lower prices. But by 2006, the credit machine no longer worked. The private sector economy was saturated with debt. It couldn’t take any more.
Only the feds could still borrow freely – which they did. In ’09 and ’10, the US government borrowed ALL America’s savings – and then some. Since November of ’10, the Fed has simply been printing money – enough to cover 109% of the government’s borrowing needs during that period.
For the most part, households still can’t borrow…and don’t want to. Unless they are borrowing from the government. All the recent increase in consumer credit, for example, can be explained by the increase in student loans.
Consumers are in no position to borrow…and no position to drive a real recovery. They’re still nailing up plywood over the windows and moving the furniture to the second floor. They don’t have jobs. They don’t have credit. And their houses – which they might have borrowed against – are still sinking below the waterline.
Oh yes, the next big surge of ARM resets, recasts and defaults begins next month.
Pity the poor lumpenconsumer. He was in such a hurry to consume in the bubble years. Now he can’t consume at all. His income is stagnant. His net worth is falling.
And if that weren’t bad enough. The poor consumer’s costs are rising.
Take a look at this report from CNBC:
Cost of Living Hits Record, Passing Pre-Crisis High
One would think that after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Americans could at least catch a break for a while …
A special index created by the Labor Department to measure the actual cost of living for Americans hit a record high in February, according to data released Thursday, surpassing the old high in July 2008. The Chained Consumer Price Index, released along with the more widely-watched CPI, increased 0.5 percent to 127.4, from 126.8 in January. In July 2008, just as the housing crisis was tightening its grip, the Chained Consumer Price Index hit its previous record of 126.9.
The regular CPI, which has already been at a record for a while, increased 0.5 percent, the fastest pace in 1-1/2 years. However, the Fed’s preferred measure, CPI excluding food and energy, increased by just 0.2 percent.
Bottom line: The cost of living for Americans is now above where it was when housing prices were in a bubble, stock prices at a record, unemployment low and consumer confidence was soaring. Something has gotta give.
The following article is from Financial Armageddon:
The Mythical Recovery
I could have taken the easy way out and simply highlighted data from the latest Gallup poll, which reveals that “Americans’ Worries About Economy, Budget Top Other Issues.”
But instead, I figured I’d put a bit more effort into it and list the breathtaking array of recent articles that show just how mythical this so-called recovery really is.
“Poll: Nearly One-Third of Homeowners Underwater on Mortgages” (The Hill)
Nearly one-third of American homeowners say they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth, according to a new poll.
Rasmussen Reports found that of 720 homeowners surveyed, 31 percent reported they were “underwater” on their mortgages. Another 53 percent said that their homes were now worth more than the amount they borrowed to buy it.
The survey serves as the latest indicator of the housing market’s continued struggles.
“Consumers Vs. Businesses Square Off on Economy” (CNBC.com)
The dismal home sales numbers released Monday morning are the latest to illustrate a developing disconnect between consumer sentiment and behavior, on the one hand, and between business plans, on the other.
Sales of previously owned homes dropped 9.6 percent in February, to a 4.88 million annual rate. That’s far slower than Bloomberg’s median forecast of economists estimate of 5.13. The median price dropped 5.2 percent from a year earlier, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.
This comes just a few days after we learned that February saw a year over year decline in housing starts of 20.8 percent, according to the Census Bureau. Building permits dropped 20.5 percent, year over year.
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell in January—the most recent month for which we have data—surprising many economists who thought we’d see a bigger economic stimulus from the Obama administration’s payroll tax cut. As it turns out—and as we predicted—Americans are saving a much higher portion of the tax than expected.
Meanwhile, consumers are also losing confidence. The preliminary March reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for March came in at 68.2, well off Reuters’ median forecast of economists of 76.5.
“More Men Are Having Plastic Surgery to Save their Jobs” (BNET)
The recession may have had an unexpected consequence for men, particularly those over 40. In 2010, more men may have gone under the knife for the sake of saving-or finding-a job. The number of men getting facelifts rose 14% from 2009 to 2010 while men using Botox increased 9% and male liposuction rose 7%, according to new statistics just released from the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS). The reason for the increases may have to do with the tighter job market, which has hit men disproportionately.
“I have guys telling me they’re getting passed over for job promotions that are going to younger guys,” said Phil Haeck, M.D., a cosmetic surgeon who practices in Seattle, the heart of the very youthful tech industry. “I have others who are unemployed and are desperate to get back to work and ask, is there anything you can do to make me look younger?” said Haeck, who is also the president of ASPS.
“Recovery Leaves Women Behind” (Baltimore Sun)
Recession hurt male-dominated sectors, but hiring is lagging for women
It became known as the “mancession” because the recent downturn battered industries dominated by men.
But the economic battle of the sexes has taken a turn. While the nation’s nascent recovery has been slow and bumpy for just about everyone, it has been almost nonexistent for women.
Of the 1.3 million jobs gained in the U.S. in the past year, 1.1 million — nearly 90 percent — went to men, Department of Labor statistics show. Women gained just 149,000 jobs during that time. If you count jobs since the recovery officially started in July 2009, men gained more than 600,000 jobs while women lost 300,000, the figures show.
“The recovery is really not happening for women at all,” said Joan Entmacher, vice president for family economic security at the National Women’s Law Center in Washington. “It’s a slow recovery overall, but it’s really leaving women behind.”
“Recession, Moms’ Schedules Help Thaw Cold Shoulders to Frozen Meals” (Dallas Morning News)
Ask a harried mom about what’s for dinner, and you could get an icy reply.
Feeling increased pressure to get a full meal on the table in less than 30 minutes, more families are eyeing the frozen food aisles for items that can carry dinnertime.
About 16 percent of dinners tonight will come from the freezer aisle, an all-time high and up from 11 percent in 1990, according to the NPD Group.
Also, frozen food is taking up more of the store, according to grocery consulting firm Willard Bishop. The average length has about doubled since 1990, to about 400 feet today.
“We used to talk about the freezer aisle,” said Corey Henry, a spokesman for the American Frozen Food Institute. “But now it’s freezer aisles.”
The trend toward frozen has only increased since the beginning of the recession, said Stacy DeBroff, chief executive of Mom Central, a Newton, Mass.-based social media agency specializing in marketing to mothers.
“Moms are busier than ever,” she said. “With the recession, a lot of moms who had been staying at home with their kids are working part time to make ends meet.”
In many cases, she said, these women are working to balance out income from a partner who lost a job or suffered a pay cut.
“Recession Boosts Private Labels” (McClatchy Newspapers)
Retailers hope customers stick with store brands.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Even as the economy shows signs of recovering, local retailers are expanding their selection of store brands and working to persuade more customers to try — and stick with — their products.
Store brands have been around for decades, offering goods similar to nationally recognized brands such as Heinz and Tide at lower prices. But they’ve come to make up a larger portion of retailers’ sales as consumers traded down to save money — often up to 30 percent compared to national brands.
Retailers are ramping up private-label offerings, trying to cement the recent gains and sell customers more of their goods.
Food prices are expected to rise this year as a result of higher oil costs and poor harvests. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting production of staple crops wheat and corn won’t meet global demand.
Neil Stern, a senior partner and retail consultant at McMillan Doolittle in Chicago, said store brands usually become more popular during down times and have kept their appeal.
“Survey: Non-Profits Still Feeling Brunt of Economic Downturn” (USA Today)
Non-profit organizations are still feeling the brunt of the economic downturn according to a new survey by Nonprofit Finance Fund. Indeed out of the 1,900 non-profit leaders that were surveyed, 87% say that the “recession has not ended.”
So what’s responsible for this negative outlook? It’s a combination of an on-going lack of resources while at the same time an increase in demand for services.
“Some of the adjustments we’re seeing are creative and healthy – such as strategic collaborations to improve impact in a community,” says Rebecca Thomas, vice president of consulting services at Nonprofit Finance Fund, in a news release. “Other effects – layoffs, people who need services being turned away, organizations operating at a deficit or with no cash, are further compromising the social safety net at a great cost to America.”
“Struggling US Economy Results in More Immigrants Returning to Mexico” (Associated Press)
NOGALES, Ariz. — More Mexican citizens are loading up their cars and taking them to Mexico.
Auto legalization shops along the border say they’ve noticed an increase in people filing to permanently register their cars in Mexico.
One Nogales business owner says most of his customers come from places like Las Vegas and Phoenix where the lack of construction jobs has made it hard to find a job. Other business owners say customers just got tired of being harassed about their immigration status.
According to Mexican census data provided to the Nogales International, an estimated 351,000 people have returned to Mexico in the past five years. That’s about a third of the 1.1 million who left the country in that time. A decade ago, about 17 percent of migrants who left Mexico returned.
“Roster of Delinquent Taxpayers Reflect an Economy Still Struggling” (Charlotte Observer)
For the second year in a row, Mecklenburg officials say the largest share of unpaid tax bills across the county belong to those owing less than $5,000, another sign that many residents are still struggling to recover from the recession.
Today, the county is listing more than 36,500 overdue bills for real estate and personal property taxes in a legal notice in Mecklenburg County editions of the Observer. The ad, required by state law, lists bills not paid by Feb. 28 to the county, city of Charlotte and Mecklenburg’s six towns.
The debt listed in today’s advertisement totals about $38.1million, down from more than $43 million last year.
County Tax Collector Neal Dixon said his staff talks to property owners who say that while they are employed, they are working fewer hours for less money.
“They’ve struggled through as long as they can, and they try to make ends meet,” said John Connaughton, a professor of economics at UNC Charlotte. “And all of a sudden, they get a property tax bill for $2,000 or $3,000 …. and it’s just difficult.”
Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.
