After the election two years ago, Time Magazine questioned whether the Elephant had become an extinct political animal. The most recent election raised questions as to whether the Donkey should be deemed an endangered species. Questioning either party’s ability to survive is reasonable and it helps sell news. However one or two elections are not sufficient for life-death assessments.
Political parties are not immortal. They are born and eventually die. Survivability is dependent upon Darwinian adaptations rather than a genetically-determined life span. Actuarial analyses can be reasonably attempted if they are based on longer periods.
Enormous change in the American landscape is coming. The “pendulum theory” of politics — one party disappoints, is removed and then returned when the other party disappoints – is too simplistic to capture major trends. Peggy Noonan’s recent take is an example of such analysis.
The Democrat Party is unlikely to survive. This outcome is affected by Obama but not directly caused by him. Likewise, the latest election results are confirming rather than causal. The Party’s amazing success since the 1930s contained the seed of its demise.
The Meaning of the Recent Elections
- The Republicans were tossed out because they did not govern according to their principles.
- The Democrats were tossed out because they did govern according to their principles.
One party lost because it misbehaved; the other because it revealed itself.
Obama’s election was erroneously interpreted as a mandate for radical change by left-wing Loonies. In spite of his uniqueness, Obama’s election was more a vote against Republican spending, hypocrisy and general misbehavior than a vote for Democrats. Socialist Obama unwisely tried to impose his vision on the country.
His overreach scared many and unleashed the coerciveness that George Washington warned about:
Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master.
Government arrogance and arbitrariness initiated a groundswell of concern that coalesced into the Tea Party movement. Ridiculed by the elites in both major