The wounded, cornered animal we know as government continues to do anything it can to survive. First the little things, like lying about how good the economy is. Data is deliberately manipulated to report better numbers than reality. Eventually the bigger things like the rule of law being ignored. We are into the bigger things at this stage as things are getting quite dicey.
An example of one of the little things is the jobless data revisions. In an honest world, preliminary estimates would be revised both up and down. Because all attention is paid to the preliminary release of the data, a consistent underestimation of this data would produce a positive reaction from the public. Eventually the data has to be revised to something more approximating the actual number (in truth, we really never have a precise figure). But that is done quietly and not focused on by the media.
In a dishonest world, there would be a skew in the revisions. In the case of unemployment data, if one were trying to fool people the headline number would be understated. Then it would later be quietly revised upward to reflect reality. In that kind of world you would get an upward skew in the revisions.
In an honest world, mistakes would be made but they would not always be one way. There would be no skew in the revision data. The number of over and under estimates would tend to be equal. There would be a randomness in the revisions.
Does the data in the following article look random to you?
If It’s Thursday…
Posted by ZandarVia Zero Hedge, the Labor Department has been quietly fudging its stats every week, and has been doing so for quite some time now if you take a cumulative look.
Needless to say, the real numbers for weekly jobless and continuing jobless claims are a lot higher than what the BLS is telling us.
Today’s numbers continue that trend. Every week, the previous week’s numbers are revised upwards, and that’s helping to hide some of the real damage.
That damage is pretty apparent in the continuing claims however. Food for thought.
