The Nation at The Bat

Cyclic views of history are generally deterministic, simplistic and wrong. The nonsense spouted by Karl Marx is probably the most famous example.

History is created by people, not external or mysterious forces. Individual behavior, not some pre-ordained script, creates history. As expressed in Lawrence of Arabia by T. E. Lawrence: “Nothing is written.”

The Fourth Turning is a book which presents a version of historical cycles. Unlike other cycle versions, its basis for cycles are rooted in human behavior. If any version of cycles make sense, it would be this one.

James Quinn provides an analysis of the book in the context of our current economic condition:

William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning in 1997. This was before the internet bubble, before the housing bubble, before 9/11, before the two wars in the Middle East, and before the financial collapse of 2008. They made a strong case for their generational theory of history. Everything that has happened since 1997 supports their theory. We are currently in the early stages of the Fourth Turning. In the last two chapters of their book, they describe the possibilities during a Fourth Turning. In the last section of the book they provide guidance on how to prepare responsibly for a Fourth Turning. Without preparation, the Fourth Turning is much worse. Below is a description of Fourth Turning possibilities, the preparations that were recommended by Strauss & Howe, and my assessment of how prepared we are as a country.

Quinn’s analysis is worthwhile for anyone concerned with where we might be heading. Any rational person should be. Quinn’s article ends with a quote from Strauss and Howe:

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.

A Fourth Turning harnesses the seasons of life to bring about a renewal in the seasons of time. In so doing, it provides passage through the great discontinuities of history and closes the full circle of the saeculum. The Fourth Turning is when the Spirit of America reappears, rousing courage and fortitude from the people. History is seasonal, but its outcomes are not foreordained. Much will depend on how tall we stand in the trials to come.

In baseball, the fourth hitter in the line-up is said to bat “clean-up.” He is generally the best hitter, at least in terms of power, on the team. He is expected to “clean-up” the teammates who got on base before him. Sometimes he is successful and becomes a hero (glory). Other times he performs like “Casey at the Bat” and is a goat (apocalypse). The nation is in its Fourth Turning. Casey is at the bat. Will he strike out or make contact. The stakes are obviously high:

The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition.

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