December tax results disappoint. This from the Wall Street Examiner:
Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed that a recovery was taking root and would continue to do so. That spells trouble for both bonds and stocks.
In the same article they refer to the NAR’s data on pending home sales as “terrifying.”
I do not trust government numbers, other than tax collections. That includes employment, CPI, GDP, etc. If you want to know what is happening, and long before the government publishes most of its numbers, look at trucking stats, freight-car loadings, shipping, etc. Part of the problem arises from “seasonal adjustments.” When you are in a recession/depression, it is unlikely that normal seasonal adjustments are valid. A bigger problem is the cheerleading that appears to be this Administration’s last hope. When desperation sets in, adjustments in numbers tend to be in the favorable direction.
Folks, this is not getting any better and cannot get any better. As I stated in another post, before 2010 is over the term “Depression” will be in common usage. The list of items mentioned in 2010 Will Be Worse ensures this. The fact that economic policy is harmful rather than helpful is another reason. Whether things get as bad as the Great Depression or not is difficult to determine.
With continued absurd economic policies and new spending programs, it is likely they will.
The Oligarchy Running the Country
Banana Republic Economics
The Horror of a Financial Implosion
Martenson Rates Fed
Chart of the Day -- Seasonal Retail Hiring
Monty:
I appreciate your efforts more than I can say. I am a lawyer, I teach at a local university, but I am also a Christian. As the Bible instructs, I seek wise counsel and think I have found such here. While all appears doom and gloom, I’m going to kick back and put my faith in God to sustain me since I am not nearly wise enough to save myself from what seems unavoidable. Actually, the Bible promises such an outcome for any nation that turns its back on God. I don’t need any further evidence that that is the case in America. My plan is faith. My prayer is that many others will find it. Thanks for sharing your insight and wisdom.
“Whether things get as bad as the Great Depression or not is difficult to determine.”
I believe that is true, and would be even after we arrived there. As one of our wags said, history does not repeat itself, but it rymes. Even if things were similar in most ways, we would still have penicillin, and most advantages gained over that span. Which, we completely fail to appreciate.
I wonder if–far more than America–it is the world that is in for a surprise.
Probably both.