The Christmas retail season is looking bleak just based on the manufacturing and ordering cycle. Stores are low in merchandise, anticipating a below average season. Many retailers may be just holding on through this period where typically 50% or more of total year sales occur. Here is a quote from SLIM PICKINGS AT ONCE-ROBUST OUTLETS OFFER A CLUE TO THE 2009 HOLIDAYS:
When all is said and done after the holidays, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection may be the only option for many chains, Cohen added. “I certainly see more bankruptcies down the road,” he said. “And we will also see vacancies going up at shopping centers and malls across the country. With a limited number of conventional retail, restaurant or entertainment tenants actively looking for space, landlords will be exploring alternative uses like dental or emergency clinics or, in the case of large big-box spaces, flea markets.”
The fear, of course, is that a series of retail chain bankruptcy filings will occur right after the holidays and that could trigger the commercial real estate bust that has been predicted for so long. Time will tell.
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