Trust Yourself. Not Government or The Media

Do not trust government numbers. As I have stated, the government is now like a cornered and wounded animal that will do anything to survive. While the Ponzi scheme economy races to an end, it is easy to rationalize white lies to keep the system going. History is littered with similar government behavior from around the globe. Even in good times there is an incentive to shade the data for political purposes. To understand how much of that has gone on, I recommend going to John Williams site ShadowStats.com who has spent years tracking the many changes in the measurement and definition that government agencies have employed. Modification should be expected over time. Yet, when every “revision” goes to show better numbers, it is obvious there is not an honest process at work. Williams tracks the data as originally measured and as currently measured. The results are astounding and troublesome. Even if you believe that central planning is viable, certainly you cannot believe that it is with faulty data.

Do not trust media analysis. The media is complicit in the “every day everything’s getting better” routine. Journalists in general are not skilled in analyzing numbers or business conditions. Hence, part of bad journalism can be blamed on ineptness. Part of it is probably deliberate to stay in good stead with the powers spinning the information. Part of it is laziness, just taking the party line from government, a corporation or some other journalist. Various general news organizations are noted for their political biases, with CNN on one side and Fox News on another.

One might think, however, that business-oriented news would be more objective. Not so. CNBC, the leading business channel, is not referred to as Tout TV for no reason. Sell-side analysts, who only make money when you are in the market, are always telling us to buy. The Wall Street Journal has a clear bias right on their editorial page, but generally provides objective news analysis, although not always. Bloomberg, another “objective” source, is questionable.

Not to pick on Bloomberg, but because it is another person’s analysis of the latest housing data, I refer to the recent post by Jeff Nielson entitled How Bloomberg Fabricates U.S. Housing Numbers Whether you believe his analysis or not is less important than being skeptical regarding what you read or hear, especially the headlines. The “correct” data is usually presented, often buried within the article, however the interpretation often reflects laziness, ineptness or political bias. You must dig into the numbers yourself (probably not reasonable for most of us) or read someone that does. I recommend that you get your news from both extremes. Read the NY Times and the WSJ. Watch CNN and Fox news. To the extent they bias matters, you will get both biases. Then, find some analysts that you trust and like and follow them. Despite all the shouting by the legacy media, the Internet is probably your best bet for analysis from both sides of the political equation.

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